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- #1
Speak of the devil, and the devil appears. On Wednesday, Brady offered the definitive statement of career planning when he declared, "When I suck, I’ll retire. But I don’t plan on sucking for a long time."
On Sunday, in a 33-20 loss to Miami, Brady sucked.
Brady completed only 29 of 56 passes, getting sacked four times and averaging just 4.4 yards per attempt, a third less than his career average. In a twist no sane mind could have seen coming, Brady's Patriots now sit alone in last place, however briefly, for the first time in his career.
Yeah, the Patriots hardcores are doubtless already banging out the IT'S JUST ONE GAME and IT WAS THE DEFENSE'S FAULT party line, so we'll let 'em have at it. You, friend, you're a more sensible type, and thus you grasp immediately that I'm not saying BRADY SHOULD BE A MAN OF HIS WORD AND RETIRE TOMORROW.
There's no way Brady is done. For starters, his next two games are against the Vikings and Raiders, and that's the schedule equivalent of leading a starving man to a Golden Corral buffet. He's got a decent receiving corps, a game-changing tight end, and the relentless mad genius of Bill Belichick still on his side. There's no reason to expect he won't be battling Peyton Manning come January in yet another Roman-numeral-tagged matchup.
Still: this is how it happens. Michael Jordan starts clanging jumpers off the front of the rim. Tiger Woods starts leaving putts two inches short. You don't notice the little things until they become the big things, and then you realize they've been the little things for a long time now.
Football Perspective ran an interesting statistical compilation last year that cuts to the heart of the Brady-aging question, namely: how long does he have? Broadly stated, quarterbacks tend to hit their statistical peak at age 29, then drop off fairly steadily. By the time they're age 38, they're playing at 50 percent of their statistical peak, and within two years, their play at age 40 drops to barely 30 percent of their best.
Brady's statistical peak, as measured by his quarterback rating, came in his age-30 season. He's now 37. Even granting that Brady is a generational talent, you see where this is heading. Brady may not be at the cliff yet, but you can see the guardrail in the distance.
Just to prove a point, Brady will probably hang 350 yards and four touchdowns on both Minnesota and Oakland. But this Miami game will be an important benchmark for the 2014 season. Last year, Brady had four worse statistical games than this one; the Patriots went 2-2 in those.
This year, keep an eye on Brady's dog games. If the Patriots are able to win even with Brady at his worst, that's good news for his fans. But if New England can't stay above the surface on days when Brady's dragging them down, the Patriots faithful are going to need to start facing the inevitable colder future.
____
Jay Busbee is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or find him on Facebook or on Twitter.
Follow @jaybusbee
On Sunday, in a 33-20 loss to Miami, Brady sucked.
Brady completed only 29 of 56 passes, getting sacked four times and averaging just 4.4 yards per attempt, a third less than his career average. In a twist no sane mind could have seen coming, Brady's Patriots now sit alone in last place, however briefly, for the first time in his career.
Yeah, the Patriots hardcores are doubtless already banging out the IT'S JUST ONE GAME and IT WAS THE DEFENSE'S FAULT party line, so we'll let 'em have at it. You, friend, you're a more sensible type, and thus you grasp immediately that I'm not saying BRADY SHOULD BE A MAN OF HIS WORD AND RETIRE TOMORROW.
There's no way Brady is done. For starters, his next two games are against the Vikings and Raiders, and that's the schedule equivalent of leading a starving man to a Golden Corral buffet. He's got a decent receiving corps, a game-changing tight end, and the relentless mad genius of Bill Belichick still on his side. There's no reason to expect he won't be battling Peyton Manning come January in yet another Roman-numeral-tagged matchup.
Still: this is how it happens. Michael Jordan starts clanging jumpers off the front of the rim. Tiger Woods starts leaving putts two inches short. You don't notice the little things until they become the big things, and then you realize they've been the little things for a long time now.
Football Perspective ran an interesting statistical compilation last year that cuts to the heart of the Brady-aging question, namely: how long does he have? Broadly stated, quarterbacks tend to hit their statistical peak at age 29, then drop off fairly steadily. By the time they're age 38, they're playing at 50 percent of their statistical peak, and within two years, their play at age 40 drops to barely 30 percent of their best.
Brady's statistical peak, as measured by his quarterback rating, came in his age-30 season. He's now 37. Even granting that Brady is a generational talent, you see where this is heading. Brady may not be at the cliff yet, but you can see the guardrail in the distance.
Just to prove a point, Brady will probably hang 350 yards and four touchdowns on both Minnesota and Oakland. But this Miami game will be an important benchmark for the 2014 season. Last year, Brady had four worse statistical games than this one; the Patriots went 2-2 in those.
This year, keep an eye on Brady's dog games. If the Patriots are able to win even with Brady at his worst, that's good news for his fans. But if New England can't stay above the surface on days when Brady's dragging them down, the Patriots faithful are going to need to start facing the inevitable colder future.
____
Jay Busbee is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or find him on Facebook or on Twitter.
Follow @jaybusbee