Ranking the Sweet 16 in order of most to least likely to win a title

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1. Kentucky
How they got here: Defeated Hampton (16), Cincinnati (8)
Up next: West Virginia (5)
Outlook: Even though Kentucky is even money in Las Vegas to win the national title and an even heavier favorite to reach the Final Four, the Wildcats' Sweet 16 matchup with West Virginia is compelling if only because the Mountaineers will throw them a different look. Kentucky will have to avoid turning the ball over against the most physical full-court press they've seen all season. The Wildcats will also have to keep the Mountaineers off the offensive glass.
2. Duke
How they got here: Defeated Robert Morris (16), San Diego State (8)
Up next: Utah (5)
Outlook: The way Duke shredded a formidable San Diego State defense in the paint and in transition was frightening for future opponents. The Blue Devils have yet to face an offense capable of exposing their defensive shortcomings, but that could change this week. Utah point guard Delon Wright excels attacking via screen and rolls and making smart decisions with the ball in his hands. He also has a significant height advantage on counterparts Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook.
3. Arizona
How they got here: Defeated Texas Southern (15), Ohio State (10)
Up next: Xavier (6)
Outlook: Arizona's one-sided victory over Ohio State was a great sign for the Wildcats. They shut down one of the nation's top scorers by throwing multiple defenders at him. They clobbered the Buckeyes on the glass at both ends. And they survived an off night from Stanley Johnson offensively and some first half struggles against Ohio State's packed-in zone. Five 3-pointers from Gabe York helped loosen up the defense and T.J. McConnell was able to find gaps off the dribble, as was Rondae Hollis-Jefferson in the high post.
4. Wisconsin
How they got here: Defeated Coastal Carolina (16), Oregon (8)
Up next: North Carolina (4)
Outlook: Wisconsin didn't exploit its size advantage against Oregon or score with its usual efficiency, but what matters is the Badgers survived and advanced. Now they have to go through a surging North Carolina team to get to a potential Elite Eight rematch with Arizona. It will be interesting to see if Traevon Jackson is cleared to play this week and if he can provide the Badgers any spark. Though Zak Showalter played well in 15 minutes off the bench against Oregon, Jackson's experience and playmaking off the bench would be a valuable asset.
5. Gonzaga
How they got here: Defeated North Dakota State (15), Iowa (7)
Up next: UCLA (11)
Outlook: Forgive Mark Few and his team for celebrating securing a spot in the Sweet 16 with handstands and backflips in the locker room. The Zags hadn't been to the NCAA tournament's second week since 2009, so routing Iowa was a breakthrough win. Gonzaga can go a lot further if it plays as well offensively in every game the rest of the tournament. The versatile Zags shot 60 percent from the field, dominating in the low post yet also hitting 10 of 20 threes.*
6. Oklahoma
How they got here: Defeated Albany (14), Dayton (11)
Up next: Michigan State (7)
Outlook: Somehow, without doing anything but thwarting the upset bids of a No. 14 seed and a No. 11 seed, Oklahoma has assumed the role of the East Region's Final Four favorite. Losses by top-seeded Villanova and second-seeded Virginia leave the Sooners as the highest-seeded team in Syracuse. They've gotten to this point with improved defense and quick-strike offense led by volume-shooting guard Buddy Hield.
7. Notre Dame
How they got here: Defeated Northeastern (14), Butler (6)
Up next: Wichita State (7)
Outlook: The matchup between the Irish and Shockers will pit two of the nation's best backcourts against one another. Fred VanVleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton combine to average 38 points per game and complement each other's skill set's perfectly, but Jerian Grant, Pat Connaughton and Demetrius Jackson are every bit as dangerous off the dribble and from behind the 3-point arc.
8. Michigan State
How they got here: Defeated Georgia (10), Virginia (2)
Up next: Oklahoma (3)
Outlook: Michigan State's presence in the Sweet 16 is essentially proof that Tom Izzo is a NCAA tournament wizard. The Spartans coach has his team in position to make a potential Final Four run despite losing stars Gary Harris, Adreian Payne and Keith Appling last spring and not bringing in his usual assortment of top high school prospects to replace them. The shooting of Travis Trice and Bryn Forbes and the assertiveness of Branden Dawson have gone a long way toward making the Spartans dangerous.*
9. Wichita State
How they got here: Defeated Indiana (10), Kansas (2)
Up next: Notre Dame (3)
Outlook: In-state bragging rights and a berth in the Sweet 16 weren't Wichita State's only reward for pulverizing Kansas on Sunday. The Shockers also kept alive the possibility of an Elite Eight showdown with unbeaten Kentucky, the same team that ended Wichita State's undefeated season last March in the NCAA tournament. To get there, Wichita State will have to avoid a letdown against a Notre Dame team that has surged in March. The Irish won the ACC tournament and validated that with an overtime win over Butler on Saturday night.
10. North Carolina
How they got here: Harvard (13), Arkansas (5)
Up next: Wisconsin (1)
Outlook: While North Carolina has redeemed itself for an underwhelming regular season by reaching the ACC tournament title game and advancing to the Sweet 16, the Tar Heels' path gets tougher now. Facing Wisconsin's multipronged ultra-efficient offense already will be challenging. Worse yet, North Carolina may have to do it without top low-post threat Kennedy Meeks, who injured his knee in the victory over Arkansas.
11. Utah
How they got here: Stephen F. Austin (12), Georgetown (4)
Up next: Duke (1)
Outlook: Utah's season is already a huge success after reaching the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005, but now the Utes will take a crack at a Duke team that they match up against surprisingly well. The teams who have handled the Utes all season are the ones that are ultra-athletic and ultra-physical like Arizona is. Great as Duke is, that's not the Blue Devils. Furthermore Delon Wright's ability to attack off the dribble and via a pick and roll may give Duke problems and Utah at least has three 7-footers it can throw at Jahlil Okafor.
12. Louisville
How they got here: Defeated UC Irvine (13), Northern Iowa (5)
Up next: NC State (8)
Outlook: Could be that I'm criminally underrating a Rick Pitino-coached team, but I don't trust Louisville's offense. The typically cold-shooting Cardinals needed a huge game from Wayne Blackshear to survive by two points against UC Irvine in the round of 64 and then played as well offensively as they have all season in beating Northern Iowa two days later. Maybe that's the start of a trend. We'll get a better idea watching the Cardinals against NC State and then potentially Michigan State or Oklahoma.
13. West Virginia
How they got here: Defeated Buffalo (12), Maryland (4)
Up next: Kentucky (1)
Outlook: When West Virginia met heavily favored Kentucky in the 2010 NCAA tournament, the Mountaineers employed a soft 1-3-1 zone that exposed the Wildcats' weakness shooting from the perimeter. Bob Huggins can only hope that his team's swarming full-court press and formidable offensive rebounding expose some similar previously unforeseen weakness in Kentucky. Playing some zone again is an option, but this Kentucky team is much better shooting thanks to Devin Booker, Tyler Ulis and the streaky Harrison twins.*
14. NC State
How they got here:
Defeated LSU (9), Villanova (1)
Up next:
Louisville (4)
Outlook:
Boom-or-bust NC State was a scary No. 8 seed because of its propensity for marquee wins and headscratching losses. A Wolfpack team that has beaten Duke, North Carolina and Louisville already this season was at its best again Saturday when it toppled No. 1 seed Villanova to advance to the Sweet 16. The question with NC State is whether it can be consistent enough to string together wins in this tournament. The Wolfpack have a tough shot-making guard in Trevor Lacey and an improving frontcourt, but they cannot afford off nights.
15. UCLA
How they got here: Defeated SMU (6), UAB (14)
Up next: Gonzaga (2)
Outlook: Having made the NCAA tournament when they weren't supposed to, won an opening-round game on a controversial call and gotten a favorable draw in the round of 32, UCLA has earned a reputation as the luckiest team in the field. What that ignores is the Bruins have also gotten better. They're defending with more urgency, they're getting the ball to the post and they're benefiting from a Bryce Alford hot streak, which is why they're probably more of a threat to Gonzaga now than in a 13-point loss in December.
16. Xavier
How they got here: Defeated Ole Miss (11), Georgia State (14)
Up next: Arizona (2)
Outlook:*Having dispatched of a pair of underdogs in Jacksonville, Xavier now becomes the underdog itself. The Musketeers head to a regional featuring national title contenders Wisconsin and Arizona and a blue blood in North Carolina that is playing its best basketball of the season. The matchup with Arizona is very compelling because of the coaching battle. Sean Miller was Chris Mack's predecessor at Xavier and led the Musketeers to the 2008 Elite Eight.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
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