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The notion that the Denver Broncos will take a step back without Peyton Manning is strange.
Manning has had one of the best careers in NFL history. He’s possibly the best quarterback ever. But whatever he did in any of his five MVP seasons has no bearing on 2015. If that was the case, just bring John Elway back to start at quarterback. He was a great quarterback once too. Things change.
The truth is 2015 Manning wasn’t doing much to help the Broncos. Please don’t bring up “his win-loss record,” because that’s a nonsense stat in a team sport. Manning‘s 67.6 rating is 51st in the NFL this season. The only player with more than 40 passes this season who has a worse rating is Ryan Mallett, and he’s out of the league. Manning has nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions. No other quarterback in the NFL has more than 12 interceptions.
Forget the name or the history — 2015 Manning has been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL this season. If any other quarterback with a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio got benched, we wouldn't think twice except to wonder what took so long.
A disclaimer: It doesn’t bring me any glee to point this out with Manning. He has had a tremendous career, he has been great for the NFL and he has been a joy to watch through the years. The Denver chapter of his career, after what he went through with the neck surgeries, has been incredibly underrated. It has been nearly miraculous and hopefully we can take a step back soon and appreciate how unbelievable his Broncos years have been. What he's done in the second chapter of his career is incomparable in NFL history. Before Tom Brady won a fourth Super Bowl last season, I thought Manning was the best quarterback ever. It’s not fun seeing his career end this way.
But if you’re going to take a step back and look at it honestly, you have to believe the Broncos will be better off with Brock Osweiler, as Osweiler makes his first career start Sunday against the Chicago Bears. The Broncos need to have their minds open to this being a permanent move if Osweiler is decent. Again, Manning has been, statistically speaking, the worst starting quarterback in the NFL this season. Osweiler can’t be worse.
In many ways maybe Osweiler will fit the offense better. Gary Kubiak’s preferred offense doesn’t work with Manning. The running game struggles without a mobile quarterback who is a threat to fake a handoff and turn it into a bootleg pass. Osweiler can do that. I’m not the biggest fan of Osweiler, but I also have no idea how good he could be with the chance to take all the first-team reps and prepare with the starters.
It’s not like teams haven’t won big with a backup quarterback before. Roger Staubach (1971), Terry Bradshaw (1974), Jim Plunkett (1980), Doug Williams (1987), Jeff Hostetler (1990), Trent Dilfer (2000) and Brady (2001) did not start the season as the team’s starting quarterback but finished it winning a Super Bowl. For various reasons they got a shot and ran with it. That's seven of 49 Super Bowl champions (and you can add Kurt Warner and the 1999 St. Louis Rams if you include the preseason).
Nobody is saying Osweiler is Staubach, Bradshaw or Brady, but why couldn’t he be Hostetler?
In 1990, Phil Simms went down with an injury late in the season and the New York Giants rolled on with Hostetler, who wasn’t great but solid on a team that had a good running game and a strong defense. New York beat the Buffalo Bills in a classic Super Bowl at the end of that season. And 1990 Simms was a lot better than 2015 Manning.
The Broncos aren’t 7-2 because of Manning, though he has made some big plays during the seven wins. Denver still has a very good defense and there are reasons to believe they will be able to run the ball well at some point. What they have not had yet this season is average quarterback play.
Maybe Osweiler will be a solid starting quarterback, maybe not. But saying the Broncos are in for a huge drop-off without Manning is remembering Manning from his 2013 and earlier days, and not what he has been this season.
Here are Shutdown Corner's power rankings after Week 10:
32. San Francisco 49ers (3-6, Last week: 30)
The worst thing for the 49ers is them winning just enough down the stretch that the front office starts thinking things like, "Maybe Blaine Gabbert would be a nice option to start in 2016!"
31. Cleveland Browns (2-8, LW: 28)
Johnny Manziel was 33-of-45 for 372 yards on Sunday. He wasn't perfect — he was sacked six times and the Browns had just a field goal going into the third quarter — but it's clear now that the Browns need to start him the rest of the season and see where it goes.
30. Detroit Lions (2-7, LW: 32)
This season is a lost one, but at least they got rid of that terrible Lambeau streak. Though they tried as hard as they could to give it away in the end.
29. Tennessee Titans (2-7, LW: 29)
Justin Hunter is out for the season. Maybe this will remove all reasons for the Titans to not play Dorial Green-Beckham full time for the rest of the season.
28. Baltimore Ravens (2-7, LW: 24)
I get it. The officials missed a call on the play in which Elvis Dumervil had the face mask penalty. But to complain about it so vehemently on Monday was petty.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6, LW: 31)
What a crazy win. Getting a once-in-a-lifetime miracle victory like that doesn't make the Jags good all of a sudden, but their schedule is manageable the rest of the way. I'm not sure they're good enough to navigate it, but they should feel very alive in the AFC South race.
26. San Diego Chargers (2-7, LW: 26)
Philip Rivers is on pace for 5,392 yards. The record is 5,477. It will be Rivers to get there with the injuries to his receivers, particularly Keenan Allen, but at least it adds a little intrigue to a lost season.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5, LW: 27)
If you cite "quarterback wins" as a real stat, you have to explain Jameis Winston getting one on Sunday. But overall, it has been more good than bad for Winston. He wasn't going to go the entire season without more bad games like he had Sunday.
24. New Orleans Saints (4-6, LW: 17)
Firing Rob Ryan doesn't fix everything, but it had to be done.
23. Houston Texans (4-5, LW: 25)
Since getting blown out at Miami on Oct. 25, the Texans haven't allowed a touchdown in two straight games. It'll be hard to win consistently unless the offense has a similar turnaround, but a big upset over the Bengals is a big step.
22. Dallas Cowboys (2-7, LW: 21)
Needs to be repeated: If you could replay the Falcons game, in which the Cowboys led by 14 points two different times, Dallas had a chance to win in six of the seven games Tony Romo missed. And the Cowboys found a way to blow every single one.
21. Washington Redskins (4-5, LW: 22)
Last week Jay Gruden said he envisioned a big week coming for DeSean Jackson. Jackson had two catches for 42 yards against a deplorable Saints defense. Jackson has just five catches for 59 yards this season. Maybe Gruden meant he saw a big week coming for Jackson next week. Or sometime in December.
20. Indianapolis Colts (4-5, LW: 18)
Three of their next four games are on the road. Will be interesting to see how they get through this stretch without Andrew Luck.
19. Miami Dolphins (4-5, LW: 20)
Rookie running back Jay Ajayi, a hot name before the draft, has played pretty well now that he's healthy. He has 89 yards on 11 carries in two games. Lamar Miller doesn't deserve to lose any playing time, but it'll be tough to keep Ajayi off the field.
18. St. Louis Rams (4-5, LW: 9)
I guess this was all Nick Foles' fault, even though that no-show against the Bears looked like a dozen other bad losses the past few years before Foles arrived.
17. Chicago Bears (4-5, LW: 23)
Before we anoint Jeremy Langford the next Walter Payton, it's probably worth noting he's averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season. But he has done well, especially in the passing game, and has pretty much spelled the end of any chance the Bears re-sign Matt Forte in free agency. It will be interesting to see how the workload is split up once Forte returns.
16. Philadelphia Eagles (4-5, LW: 15)
Nelson Agholor had three catches for 32 yards on Sunday, bringing his total on the season to 11 catches and 137 yards. Not enough has been made of how little Philadelphia is getting from its first-round pick.
15. New York Giants (5-5, LW: 16)
You probably have to feel better about the Giants today, after they nearly beat the Patriots. They defended the pass way better than they did in the previous few games.
14. Seattle Seahawks (4-5, LW: 10)
They're just not very good. The whole "you are what your record says you are" isn't always true. In the Seahawks' case it is. They look like a team that doesn't deserve to be over .500.
13. Kansas City Chiefs (4-5, LW: 19)
Manning didn't play well and that certainly helped the Chiefs' cause. But give Kansas City credit for what happened in Denver, too. They play one team with a winning record the rest of the season.
12. Oakland Raiders (4-5, LW: 11)
Probably clear they're a year away. They can still rally, but Sunday's game is the kind of one the Raiders* needed to win to be a playoff team.
11. Atlanta Falcons (6-3, LW: 14)
The Colts game on Sunday is interesting for both sides. We don't know if the Colts will be very good without Luck this time around and the Falcons haven't had a promising performance since early in October.
10. New York Jets (5-4, LW: 12)
I'm not sure why we're so quick to pick nits with Darrelle Revis this season. He held Sammy Watkins to three catches and 17 yards. Everyone is quick to point out that Watkins had a drop and that he beat Revis deep once but the Bills couldn't connect ... and that kind of proves the point. People are needing to look very, very closely to find reasons to discredit Revis.
9. Buffalo Bills (5-4, LW: 13)
They needed that win last Thursday. After securing it, there's no reason reason to believe they can't be one of the AFC's wild-card teams. Their Nov. 29 game at Kansas City looms large in that race.
8. Green Bay Packers (6-3, LW: 6)
No one move was going to make Aaron Rodgers more accurate on Sunday or turn Eddie Lacy into a usable back again, but it's still baffling why the Packers sat on $14.9 million in salary cap room this offseason during free agency.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4, LW: 8)
I really wanted to see emergency quarterback Heath Miller have to take some snaps on Sunday.
6. Minnesota Vikings (7-2, LW: 7)
Usually every season there's a team that keeps outrunning the advanced stats that say they're not really as good as their record. It seems like that's the Vikings' role this year.
5. Denver Broncos (7-2, LW: 4)
See above. The Broncos are going to be a better team in the long run having replaced a quarterback who has nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions this season. Not even sure how this can be debated.
4. Arizona Cardinals (7-2, LW: 5)
Tyrann Mathieu is an incredible player for the Cardinals' defense. He fills any role they need him to be in and does everything really well.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-1, LW: 2)
Get ready for a week of "See? Andy Dalton stinks!" It's one bad game. Don't overreact on the Bengals. They're still a good team.
2. Carolina Panthers (9-0, LW: 3)
Unless Vegas deals a surprising line for Carolina at Dallas, the Panthers should be 13-0 going into a Dec. 20 game at the New York Giants if they win all the games they're favored in. And it's not crazy to think they could be favored at New York either.
1. New England Patriots (9-0, LW: 1)
The Julian Edelman injury is obviously a huge blow. Danny Amendola isn't a huge dropoff, though he's not as good as Edelman. The big problem is what happens when the inevitable Amendola injury comes.
Manning has had one of the best careers in NFL history. He’s possibly the best quarterback ever. But whatever he did in any of his five MVP seasons has no bearing on 2015. If that was the case, just bring John Elway back to start at quarterback. He was a great quarterback once too. Things change.
The truth is 2015 Manning wasn’t doing much to help the Broncos. Please don’t bring up “his win-loss record,” because that’s a nonsense stat in a team sport. Manning‘s 67.6 rating is 51st in the NFL this season. The only player with more than 40 passes this season who has a worse rating is Ryan Mallett, and he’s out of the league. Manning has nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions. No other quarterback in the NFL has more than 12 interceptions.
Forget the name or the history — 2015 Manning has been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL this season. If any other quarterback with a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio got benched, we wouldn't think twice except to wonder what took so long.
A disclaimer: It doesn’t bring me any glee to point this out with Manning. He has had a tremendous career, he has been great for the NFL and he has been a joy to watch through the years. The Denver chapter of his career, after what he went through with the neck surgeries, has been incredibly underrated. It has been nearly miraculous and hopefully we can take a step back soon and appreciate how unbelievable his Broncos years have been. What he's done in the second chapter of his career is incomparable in NFL history. Before Tom Brady won a fourth Super Bowl last season, I thought Manning was the best quarterback ever. It’s not fun seeing his career end this way.
In many ways maybe Osweiler will fit the offense better. Gary Kubiak’s preferred offense doesn’t work with Manning. The running game struggles without a mobile quarterback who is a threat to fake a handoff and turn it into a bootleg pass. Osweiler can do that. I’m not the biggest fan of Osweiler, but I also have no idea how good he could be with the chance to take all the first-team reps and prepare with the starters.
It’s not like teams haven’t won big with a backup quarterback before. Roger Staubach (1971), Terry Bradshaw (1974), Jim Plunkett (1980), Doug Williams (1987), Jeff Hostetler (1990), Trent Dilfer (2000) and Brady (2001) did not start the season as the team’s starting quarterback but finished it winning a Super Bowl. For various reasons they got a shot and ran with it. That's seven of 49 Super Bowl champions (and you can add Kurt Warner and the 1999 St. Louis Rams if you include the preseason).
Nobody is saying Osweiler is Staubach, Bradshaw or Brady, but why couldn’t he be Hostetler?
In 1990, Phil Simms went down with an injury late in the season and the New York Giants rolled on with Hostetler, who wasn’t great but solid on a team that had a good running game and a strong defense. New York beat the Buffalo Bills in a classic Super Bowl at the end of that season. And 1990 Simms was a lot better than 2015 Manning.
The Broncos aren’t 7-2 because of Manning, though he has made some big plays during the seven wins. Denver still has a very good defense and there are reasons to believe they will be able to run the ball well at some point. What they have not had yet this season is average quarterback play.
Maybe Osweiler will be a solid starting quarterback, maybe not. But saying the Broncos are in for a huge drop-off without Manning is remembering Manning from his 2013 and earlier days, and not what he has been this season.
Here are Shutdown Corner's power rankings after Week 10:
32. San Francisco 49ers (3-6, Last week: 30)
The worst thing for the 49ers is them winning just enough down the stretch that the front office starts thinking things like, "Maybe Blaine Gabbert would be a nice option to start in 2016!"
31. Cleveland Browns (2-8, LW: 28)
30. Detroit Lions (2-7, LW: 32)
This season is a lost one, but at least they got rid of that terrible Lambeau streak. Though they tried as hard as they could to give it away in the end.
29. Tennessee Titans (2-7, LW: 29)
Justin Hunter is out for the season. Maybe this will remove all reasons for the Titans to not play Dorial Green-Beckham full time for the rest of the season.
28. Baltimore Ravens (2-7, LW: 24)
I get it. The officials missed a call on the play in which Elvis Dumervil had the face mask penalty. But to complain about it so vehemently on Monday was petty.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6, LW: 31)
What a crazy win. Getting a once-in-a-lifetime miracle victory like that doesn't make the Jags good all of a sudden, but their schedule is manageable the rest of the way. I'm not sure they're good enough to navigate it, but they should feel very alive in the AFC South race.
26. San Diego Chargers (2-7, LW: 26)
Philip Rivers is on pace for 5,392 yards. The record is 5,477. It will be Rivers to get there with the injuries to his receivers, particularly Keenan Allen, but at least it adds a little intrigue to a lost season.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5, LW: 27)
If you cite "quarterback wins" as a real stat, you have to explain Jameis Winston getting one on Sunday. But overall, it has been more good than bad for Winston. He wasn't going to go the entire season without more bad games like he had Sunday.
24. New Orleans Saints (4-6, LW: 17)
Firing Rob Ryan doesn't fix everything, but it had to be done.
23. Houston Texans (4-5, LW: 25)
Since getting blown out at Miami on Oct. 25, the Texans haven't allowed a touchdown in two straight games. It'll be hard to win consistently unless the offense has a similar turnaround, but a big upset over the Bengals is a big step.
22. Dallas Cowboys (2-7, LW: 21)
Needs to be repeated: If you could replay the Falcons game, in which the Cowboys led by 14 points two different times, Dallas had a chance to win in six of the seven games Tony Romo missed. And the Cowboys found a way to blow every single one.
21. Washington Redskins (4-5, LW: 22)
Last week Jay Gruden said he envisioned a big week coming for DeSean Jackson. Jackson had two catches for 42 yards against a deplorable Saints defense. Jackson has just five catches for 59 yards this season. Maybe Gruden meant he saw a big week coming for Jackson next week. Or sometime in December.
20. Indianapolis Colts (4-5, LW: 18)
Three of their next four games are on the road. Will be interesting to see how they get through this stretch without Andrew Luck.
19. Miami Dolphins (4-5, LW: 20)
Rookie running back Jay Ajayi, a hot name before the draft, has played pretty well now that he's healthy. He has 89 yards on 11 carries in two games. Lamar Miller doesn't deserve to lose any playing time, but it'll be tough to keep Ajayi off the field.
18. St. Louis Rams (4-5, LW: 9)
17. Chicago Bears (4-5, LW: 23)
Before we anoint Jeremy Langford the next Walter Payton, it's probably worth noting he's averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season. But he has done well, especially in the passing game, and has pretty much spelled the end of any chance the Bears re-sign Matt Forte in free agency. It will be interesting to see how the workload is split up once Forte returns.
16. Philadelphia Eagles (4-5, LW: 15)
Nelson Agholor had three catches for 32 yards on Sunday, bringing his total on the season to 11 catches and 137 yards. Not enough has been made of how little Philadelphia is getting from its first-round pick.
15. New York Giants (5-5, LW: 16)
You probably have to feel better about the Giants today, after they nearly beat the Patriots. They defended the pass way better than they did in the previous few games.
14. Seattle Seahawks (4-5, LW: 10)
They're just not very good. The whole "you are what your record says you are" isn't always true. In the Seahawks' case it is. They look like a team that doesn't deserve to be over .500.
13. Kansas City Chiefs (4-5, LW: 19)
Manning didn't play well and that certainly helped the Chiefs' cause. But give Kansas City credit for what happened in Denver, too. They play one team with a winning record the rest of the season.
12. Oakland Raiders (4-5, LW: 11)
Probably clear they're a year away. They can still rally, but Sunday's game is the kind of one the Raiders* needed to win to be a playoff team.
11. Atlanta Falcons (6-3, LW: 14)
The Colts game on Sunday is interesting for both sides. We don't know if the Colts will be very good without Luck this time around and the Falcons haven't had a promising performance since early in October.
10. New York Jets (5-4, LW: 12)
9. Buffalo Bills (5-4, LW: 13)
They needed that win last Thursday. After securing it, there's no reason reason to believe they can't be one of the AFC's wild-card teams. Their Nov. 29 game at Kansas City looms large in that race.
8. Green Bay Packers (6-3, LW: 6)
No one move was going to make Aaron Rodgers more accurate on Sunday or turn Eddie Lacy into a usable back again, but it's still baffling why the Packers sat on $14.9 million in salary cap room this offseason during free agency.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4, LW: 8)
I really wanted to see emergency quarterback Heath Miller have to take some snaps on Sunday.
6. Minnesota Vikings (7-2, LW: 7)
Usually every season there's a team that keeps outrunning the advanced stats that say they're not really as good as their record. It seems like that's the Vikings' role this year.
5. Denver Broncos (7-2, LW: 4)
See above. The Broncos are going to be a better team in the long run having replaced a quarterback who has nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions this season. Not even sure how this can be debated.
4. Arizona Cardinals (7-2, LW: 5)
Tyrann Mathieu is an incredible player for the Cardinals' defense. He fills any role they need him to be in and does everything really well.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-1, LW: 2)
Get ready for a week of "See? Andy Dalton stinks!" It's one bad game. Don't overreact on the Bengals. They're still a good team.
2. Carolina Panthers (9-0, LW: 3)
Unless Vegas deals a surprising line for Carolina at Dallas, the Panthers should be 13-0 going into a Dec. 20 game at the New York Giants if they win all the games they're favored in. And it's not crazy to think they could be favored at New York either.
1. New England Patriots (9-0, LW: 1)
The Julian Edelman injury is obviously a huge blow. Danny Amendola isn't a huge dropoff, though he's not as good as Edelman. The big problem is what happens when the inevitable Amendola injury comes.
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab