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A week of anticipation is almost over. The Final Four is almost here. North Carolina and Oregon will battle in the second of two national semifinals on Saturday at approximately 8:49 p.m. ET, or 40 minutes after the conclusion of Gonzaga-South Carolina. Both games can be seen on CBS. North Carolina is a five-point favorite in the nightcap.
Before the Tar Heels and Ducks tip off, here is a dive into the most important aspect of Saturday’s contest:
KEY MATCHUP: Small-ball vs. big-ball, and the give-and-take*that ensues
Mismatches are inescapable in college basketball. With so much team-to-team variation, so many different styles and philosophies, and so many unique players, size, speed and skill set contrasts sometimes seem*ubiquitous.
The most anticipated of the two Final Four matchups offers up the quintessential college hoops mismatch, a thin frontcourt and a small-ball four against one of the most imposing frontlines in the country. The advantages and disadvantages it creates are central to Oregon’s upset potential, but also to North Carolina’s expected superiority.
The thing about mismatches is that they are almost always two-sided. Every mismatch*inherently comes with a give-and-take, a sacrifice in one sector of a game that allows for benefit in another. On Saturday, the “give” for both clubs is on the defensive end; rewards will be reaped on the offensive end. Let’s explore what that means on both sides.
The mismatch
Ever since Chris Boucher went down with a season-ending injury during the Pac-12 tournament, Oregon has spent over 80 percent of game time employing a four-guard lineup with 6-foot-7 wing Dillon Brooks as the nominal power forward. The small-ball alignment was actually Oregon’s best lineup even before Boucher’s injury, but the shorthanded Ducks have now gone almost exclusively to it out of necessity. They used it the entire game against Michigan in the Sweet 16, and for all but two minutes against Kansas in the Elite Eight.
North Carolina, meanwhile, is built like all of Roy Williams’ great Carolina teams have been built: With two true big men marauding in and around the paint. Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks are the starters at the five and the four, respectively; Tony Bradley and Luke Maye give Carolina a talented four-man rotation for two spots. Williams rarely, if ever, has only one of them in the game at a given time.
This not only creates a mismatch at the four, where Hicks will likely draw Brooks, but also at the three, where either 6-foot-4 scoring guard Tyler Dorsey or 6-foot-2 combo guard Dylan Ennis will be tasked with sticking North Carolina’s best*player, 6-foot-8 wing Justin Jackson. The Jackson matchup is primarily an issue for Oregon; the Brooks dilemma, however, goes both ways.
Dillon Brooks will be a problem for North Carolina. (Getty) How will Carolina defend Brooks?
The problems will be plentiful for Hicks and Maye when matched up on Brooks, who, to be clear, is not merely a stretch-four. He’s a wing — more shooting guard than power forward — pushed down a spot in the lineup.
Brooks will be able to hurt North Carolina in a variety of ways. He should theoretically be able to score in isolations. He’ll shoot over Hicks if Hicks sags off. Oregon’s drive-and-kick attack will become more dangerous. The most frightening situations for the Tar Heels might be three-four pick-and-rolls or pick-and-pops with Dorsey and Brooks, though Jackson’s length eases some of the concern there. Expect North Carolina to switch many on-ball screens involving Brooks, because Hicks on a guard isn’t significantly worse than Hicks on Brooks.
Hicks is athletic for a player his size, but as you might expect, North Carolina has struggled with perimeter-oriented fours like Brooks this year. Here’s a look at eight notable games:
Data: kenpom.com. Table: Henry Bushnell/Yahoo Sports Tatum’s exploits have been oft-cited over the past week as worrying signs for North Carolina, but it’s the five other games that are more cautionary. The five players highlighted scored a combined 103 points on 59 field goal attempts. That’s ominous.
But equally ominous for Oregon are North Carolina’s offensive rebounding percentages in those same five games.
Can Oregon keep Carolina off the offensive glass?
The biggest statistical mismatch of the game is on Oregon’s defensive and North Carolina’s offensive boards. The Tar Heels rank tops in the country in offensive rebounding percentage; they grab 41.9 percent of their own misses. Oregon, meanwhile, ranks 179th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage at 29.3 percent, almost identical to the Division I*average. Regardless of matchup specifics, then, North Carolina should be expected to turn almost half of its missed shots into second (or third, etc.) chances.
It’s not just that Williams plays two bigs at a time. The Tar Heels have a unique offense that lends itself to offensive rebounding.*Because it isn’t*brimming with ball screens, and because North Carolina’s four big men aren’t tasked with handling the ball much on the perimeter, they can devote much of their offensive energy to seeking out and carving out rebounding territory. After a post entry, the weak-side big will often already begin fighting for rebounding position. The two bigs and Jackson usually*crash toward the rim, and sometimes even do so before a shot leaves the shooter’s hands.
Oregon has the best shot-blocker remaining in the tournament, and one of the best shot-blockers in college basketball, in Jordan Bell, but the more Bell tries to alter first shots, the more vulnerable he’ll leave his undersized teammates to second shots. If he comes off his man to contest one of Jackson’s*8-foot floaters, for example, Meeks and Hicks — or Bradley, or Maye — will be free to feast on any potential scraps. Bell’s decision making — when to go for a block, when to stay at home — will be crucial. He must do more than his fair share on the defensive glass.
Another key could be Oregon’s constantly shifting defense, which morphs from a 1-2-2 three-quarter-court trap into a man-to-man into a matchup zone, and often hovers somewhere in between. The Tar Heels have had a week to prepare for the Ducks, and a week to prepare to adapt on the fly, but if they’re befuddled, shots might not get up to the rim in the first place. North Carolina can win without getting quality first shots, but it must get some sort of first shot on a consistent basis so it can take advantage of its superiority on the boards.
Even if Brooks gets his 20 or 25 points, North Carolina can still win the game by exploiting the other end of the matchup. Oregon must take advantage of Carolina’s second big man on the offensive end, but also must*mitigate the advantage that second big man has on the other end of the floor.
Before the Tar Heels and Ducks tip off, here is a dive into the most important aspect of Saturday’s contest:
KEY MATCHUP: Small-ball vs. big-ball, and the give-and-take*that ensues
Mismatches are inescapable in college basketball. With so much team-to-team variation, so many different styles and philosophies, and so many unique players, size, speed and skill set contrasts sometimes seem*ubiquitous.
The most anticipated of the two Final Four matchups offers up the quintessential college hoops mismatch, a thin frontcourt and a small-ball four against one of the most imposing frontlines in the country. The advantages and disadvantages it creates are central to Oregon’s upset potential, but also to North Carolina’s expected superiority.
The thing about mismatches is that they are almost always two-sided. Every mismatch*inherently comes with a give-and-take, a sacrifice in one sector of a game that allows for benefit in another. On Saturday, the “give” for both clubs is on the defensive end; rewards will be reaped on the offensive end. Let’s explore what that means on both sides.
The mismatch
Ever since Chris Boucher went down with a season-ending injury during the Pac-12 tournament, Oregon has spent over 80 percent of game time employing a four-guard lineup with 6-foot-7 wing Dillon Brooks as the nominal power forward. The small-ball alignment was actually Oregon’s best lineup even before Boucher’s injury, but the shorthanded Ducks have now gone almost exclusively to it out of necessity. They used it the entire game against Michigan in the Sweet 16, and for all but two minutes against Kansas in the Elite Eight.
North Carolina, meanwhile, is built like all of Roy Williams’ great Carolina teams have been built: With two true big men marauding in and around the paint. Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks are the starters at the five and the four, respectively; Tony Bradley and Luke Maye give Carolina a talented four-man rotation for two spots. Williams rarely, if ever, has only one of them in the game at a given time.
This not only creates a mismatch at the four, where Hicks will likely draw Brooks, but also at the three, where either 6-foot-4 scoring guard Tyler Dorsey or 6-foot-2 combo guard Dylan Ennis will be tasked with sticking North Carolina’s best*player, 6-foot-8 wing Justin Jackson. The Jackson matchup is primarily an issue for Oregon; the Brooks dilemma, however, goes both ways.
The problems will be plentiful for Hicks and Maye when matched up on Brooks, who, to be clear, is not merely a stretch-four. He’s a wing — more shooting guard than power forward — pushed down a spot in the lineup.
Brooks will be able to hurt North Carolina in a variety of ways. He should theoretically be able to score in isolations. He’ll shoot over Hicks if Hicks sags off. Oregon’s drive-and-kick attack will become more dangerous. The most frightening situations for the Tar Heels might be three-four pick-and-rolls or pick-and-pops with Dorsey and Brooks, though Jackson’s length eases some of the concern there. Expect North Carolina to switch many on-ball screens involving Brooks, because Hicks on a guard isn’t significantly worse than Hicks on Brooks.
Hicks is athletic for a player his size, but as you might expect, North Carolina has struggled with perimeter-oriented fours like Brooks this year. Here’s a look at eight notable games:
But equally ominous for Oregon are North Carolina’s offensive rebounding percentages in those same five games.
Can Oregon keep Carolina off the offensive glass?
The biggest statistical mismatch of the game is on Oregon’s defensive and North Carolina’s offensive boards. The Tar Heels rank tops in the country in offensive rebounding percentage; they grab 41.9 percent of their own misses. Oregon, meanwhile, ranks 179th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage at 29.3 percent, almost identical to the Division I*average. Regardless of matchup specifics, then, North Carolina should be expected to turn almost half of its missed shots into second (or third, etc.) chances.
It’s not just that Williams plays two bigs at a time. The Tar Heels have a unique offense that lends itself to offensive rebounding.*Because it isn’t*brimming with ball screens, and because North Carolina’s four big men aren’t tasked with handling the ball much on the perimeter, they can devote much of their offensive energy to seeking out and carving out rebounding territory. After a post entry, the weak-side big will often already begin fighting for rebounding position. The two bigs and Jackson usually*crash toward the rim, and sometimes even do so before a shot leaves the shooter’s hands.
Oregon has the best shot-blocker remaining in the tournament, and one of the best shot-blockers in college basketball, in Jordan Bell, but the more Bell tries to alter first shots, the more vulnerable he’ll leave his undersized teammates to second shots. If he comes off his man to contest one of Jackson’s*8-foot floaters, for example, Meeks and Hicks — or Bradley, or Maye — will be free to feast on any potential scraps. Bell’s decision making — when to go for a block, when to stay at home — will be crucial. He must do more than his fair share on the defensive glass.
Another key could be Oregon’s constantly shifting defense, which morphs from a 1-2-2 three-quarter-court trap into a man-to-man into a matchup zone, and often hovers somewhere in between. The Tar Heels have had a week to prepare for the Ducks, and a week to prepare to adapt on the fly, but if they’re befuddled, shots might not get up to the rim in the first place. North Carolina can win without getting quality first shots, but it must get some sort of first shot on a consistent basis so it can take advantage of its superiority on the boards.
Even if Brooks gets his 20 or 25 points, North Carolina can still win the game by exploiting the other end of the matchup. Oregon must take advantage of Carolina’s second big man on the offensive end, but also must*mitigate the advantage that second big man has on the other end of the floor.