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The Carolina Panthers are the NFC South upstarts, the team that has come out of nowhere to challenge for the division crown.
That storyline is fine, but the Panthers' revival started last year after everyone stopped paying attention to them, and was punctuated by a road win at New Orleans.
Before assuming that a Panthers' win on Sunday would be a massive upset, consider that they won in New Orleans less than a year ago. Carolina won 44-38 at the Superdome in Week 17, the Panthers' fifth win in their final six games last season. If you want to believe that the Saints were mailing it in by that point in the season, it's worth noting that New Orleans won in Week 15 and 16.
The Panthers were laying the foundation for their breakout 2013 season, and that win in the final week gave them a lot of positive momentum into the offseason.
In the finale at New Orleans, DeAngelo Williams had 210 yards rushing and two touchdowns, and Mike Tolbert had three rushing touchdowns. Carolina led 41-24 early in the fourth quarter and held off a late Saints rally. That gave the Panthers a season sweep of the Saints. They beat New Orleans in Week 2 as well.
New Orleans is a much better team this season. The return of coach Sean Payton has been huge, and the defense is much improved. But Carolina knows it can win at the Superdome and won't be intimidated on Sunday night.
The Panthers also just saw New Orleans get kicked around pretty good on Monday night by a Seahawks team that plays physical defense, runs the ball well and has a dynamic young quarterback. That same formula has lifted the Panthers to a 9-3 record, tied with the Saints for first place in the NFC South.
The Panthers probably need to win this game to take the NFC South title. Both are still undefeated in division play, but Carolina has dropped two games against NFC teams and the Saints have lost just one. That will be very important if the division is decided on tiebreakers. Maybe the Saints drop a game to the Rams or Buccaneers down the stretch and that changes the tiebreaker situation, but the easiest path for the Panthers to win the division and likely get the No. 2 seed in the NFC is to beat the Saints this week and finish the sweep in Week 16 at Carolina.
New Orleans has been one of the best teams in the NFL all season. But the Panthers should have the confidence that if anyone can win at the Superdome this season, it's them.
(Here are the other NFL games this week, from best to worst (all times Eastern, all games Sunday unless noted otherwise):
3. Detroit at Philadelphia, 1 p.m.: The Eagles probably have more on the line because they're in a tie with the Cowboys for first place in the NFC East. The Lions would surely like to wrap up the NFC North sooner than later, though.
4. Indianapolis at Cincinnati, 1 p.m.: Another interesting game between first-place teams. The Colts can clinch the AFC South this week, and the Bengals are trying to wrap up the North before Week 17's game against Baltimore.
5. Miami at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m.: The Steelers' offensive line injuries are a big issue. They need to win this game to stay in the wild-card race. The Dolphins are tied for the sixth seed but have a tough remaining schedule.
6. Tennessee at Denver, 4:05 p.m.: The high temperature in Denver on Sunday is supposed to be in the teens. Every throw Peyton Manning makes in the cold weather will be dissected, and rightfully so.
8. St. Louis at Arizona, 4:25 p.m.: The Rams are tough to predict, but they're capable of giving the Cardinals a good game, even though Arizona has been very tough at home.
9. Minnesota at Baltimore, 1 p.m.: If the Vikings can find a way to move the ball, they could really throw a wrench into the AFC wild-card race with a win.
10. Kansas City at Washington, 1 p.m.: The Chiefs' three-game losing streak isn't the end of the world for them. A loss to a horrible Redskins team would cause some panic.
11. N.Y. Giants at San Diego, 4:25 p.m.: No, folks, the Giants' win over the Redskins on Sunday night didn't save their season. It's dead. They're a terrible team.
12. Cleveland at New England, 1 p.m.: The Browns' starting quarterback remained a secret early in the week, mostly because of injuries to Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden. Truthfully, it doesn't matter who they start.
13. Oakland at N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m.: Want to see Jets fans freak out? Then root for undrafted Raiders rookie quarterback Matt McGloin to outplay Jets second-round pick Geno Smith.
14. Buffalo at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m.: This game is a little more interesting than the 7-17 combined records indicate, just because these are two of the top 2014 breakout candidates.
15. Atlanta at Green Bay, 1 p.m.: The NFL changes so fast, doesn't it? A few months ago, this looked like an incredible matchup. (However, it would get much more watchable if Aaron Rodgers makes his return.)
16. Houston at Jacksonville, 8:25 p.m. (Thursday): Exhibit A why we should probably just do away with "Thursday Night Football."
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