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For owners lucky enough to draft first overall, the gift has been a blessing and possibly a curse. Torn between several options — Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles and even Michael Vick — many have ripped out hair over the fortunate quandary.
The solution should be simple.
Though Vick carried many to championship glory last year, Foster, who took the NFL by storm besting the Purple Jesus by 4.5 points per game in standard formats, seems the obvious answer. However, after the undrafted product was sidelined by a relatively minor, yet worrisome, hamstring injury early in training camp, many started to second guess the league's reigning rushing king. Scared he might be a one-hit wonder, skittish fanatics began bypassing him. Subsequently, Foster's ADP since August 1, according to Mock Draft Central, dropped nearly 14-percent.
Saturday against New Orleans, No. 23 didn't "piss the night away," proving once and for all he's no Chumbawamba.
On the Texans' opening drive, Foster flashed the skills that catapulted him to the top of the RB ranks a season ago. After catching a 6-yard pass from Matt Schaub earlier in the series, he grabbed the rock, cutback against the grain and rocketed his way to an impressive 12-yard gain. Later in the game, he electrified the home crowd with a similar, but longer, scamper which resulted in his second score. He finished with 53 yards and two TDs on only six touches (Watch highlights here).
Suffice it to say, worries over his tender hammy, and to a lesser extent Vonta Leach's departure, were immediately put to rest. He is the virtual game's indisputable pole-sitter, no matter the format.
Still, owners lucky enough to land Foster better handcuff/hogtie/glue Ben Tate to their prized possession. The once buzzy rookie, whose initial campaign ended abruptly after he fractured his fibula and shredded ankle ligaments last preseason, repeatedly powered through wide holes and over would-be Saints tacklers. He was strong, decisive and surprisingly speedy (Visual evidence here). On just 10 touches the former second-round pick impressively totaled 108 yards and a touchdown, staking his claim as Foster's primary backup.
In the event the incumbent did go down, Tate would instantly vault into the RB top-15. And that might be a conservative estimate. The severely underrated Texans offensive line combined with Schaub and Andre Johnson's ability to stretch the field could probably turn smoldering pile Julius Jones into a Pro Bowler. Remember this is a Kubiak system that transformed several unknowns (e.g. Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary and Rueben Droughns) into superstars while he was offensive coordinator in Denver. With an ADP in the 140s, Tate is one lottery ticket worth purchasing.
After a very busy second week of action, here are nine additional takeaways from the weekend's preseason slate:
• Staying in H-Town, the blurry Pierre Thomas-Mark Ingram platoon is starting to come into focus. It appears the early-down rotation — Darren Sproles will likely be deployed 90-95 percent of the time on third downs — resembles Norv Turner's in San Diego. The PT Bruiser, who drew the start for the second straight week, will be the between the 20s option (Ryan Mathews). Meanwhile, Ingram will net most action inside the red-zone and on short-yardage, including goal-line work (Mike Tolbert).
Against the Texans, PT finished with 48 total yards on seven touches. Not to be outdone, Ingram racked 25 yards and a score on seven carries. *Sproles tallied 32 yards on four touches.
Admittedly, most owners would rather sink cash in the stock market than the New Orleans backfield. Their hesitancy is understandable. Sean Payton is completely untrustworthy. But based on the slashed Y! ADPs of Ingram (77.7) and Thomas (117.6), both are fabulous discount backs. The former has a great shot at double-digit touchdowns, though his yardage totals may suffer. The latter, meanwhile, could be a sneaky 1,000 total yard, 5-6 TD flex option, especially in PPR formats.
• Just two weeks ago fantasy owners wholeheartedly believed Tony Sparano was one Reggie Bush gush away from wearing a straight jacket. Evidently those that doubted him, including The Noise, were the ones truly insane.
Over his six-year career, Bush's finest accomplishment was mounting Mt. Kardashian. Without a doubt he's one of the league's most dynamic players in space, but his refusal to engage contact has*stymied*his full-potential.
Sparano plans to utilize Bush as a RB/WR hybrid, suggesting he'll again be limited to sporadic duty on passing downs. However, he might actually be the best early-down option the 'Fins currently have.
Daniel Thomas, a favorite of yours truly before preseason play, has exhibited only average power, often going down on first contact. The rookie definitely has the frame for goal-line work, but unless his pad level and leg drive quickly improves, Lex Hilliard could wrest away touches inside the five. Move him down your cheat sheet.
After Bush's impressive 81 total yard effort against Carolina Friday, he is the Dolphins back to own. Thomas may best him in the TD department, but the shifty veteran will likely tally some 40-50 touches more. Because of Chad Henne's affinity for checking down, it's even possible Bush could surpass 70 receptions and 1,300 total yards, pure gold in PPR. Going around pick No. 108 in Y! drafts, he's quickly becoming quite the bargain buy.
With Ringer sidelined by a hip injury, Harper seized the moment in his first start. The fourth-round pick out of Clemson bulled his way to 83 yards on just 11 carries and a touchdown, displaying marked power, excellent open-field speed and tremendous footwork (Watch him gash the Rams for 46 yards here). Post-game, Mike Munchak called the kid's effort "encouraging." "Eye-opening" seems more appropriate.
Whispers pre-lockout indicated Harper was expected to compete with Johnson for goal-line carries and work on third-downs. After*his stellar effort Saturday, that role could be realized.
Ringer is still in the conversation, but if Harper logs another strong showing next week versus Chicago, he could move up the depth chart. Throw in Johnson's seemingly endless dispute, and it's very possible the upstart takes first-team snaps Week 1 at Jacksonville. Owned in under one-percent of Yahoo! leagues, he is a player to stash. With or without Johnson, the largely ignored back will likely make a noticeable impact at some point this year.
• On the Colts' broadcast Friday and later on Twitter, Indy owner Jim Irsay hinted Peyton Manning may not be ready for Week 1. *Speaking earlier in the day during halftime of a high school football game at Lucas Oil Stadium, No. 18 only added to the uncertainty saying he "hopes" to play.
Until Manning dons pads and absorbs contact in practice, his availability for September 11's matchup at Houston will remain vague, clouding his true worth. As I discussed on the Dan Patrick Show Thursday, the normally reliable four-time MVP is a risky investment at his current ADP (19.1 in Y!). Why slap the wallet for his services when studs like Hakeem Nicks, Peyton Hillis and Tom Brady are still on the board? Remember, QB is*ridiculously*deep this season. Unless Peyton is heavily discounted, he's avoidable in the early rounds.
• Washington's backfield is one 'H' shy of finishing off the opposition with the "Pedigree." Unsung duo Tim Hightower and Roy Helu accounted for 201 of the Skins' 415 total yards against the Manning-less Colts. The former Cardinal, who cemented his status as lead back, also chipped in a one-yard scoring plunge (Highlights here).
Out of spite for Mike Shanahan, owners of all experience levels continue to circumvent anyone wearing Redskins red. Hightower's draft stock rose only marginally in Yahoo! leagues this past week, topping out at 116.5.
Despite Lucifer's history of treachery, it's time to wake up.
Yes, Helu will be involved in some capacity, potentially netting roughly 10-12 touches per game, but he's clearly second fiddle to the veteran. The rookie might possess more raw talent, but Hightower is light years better in pass protection. Owners seeking out a solid RB2/3 in deeper formats should keep getting High in the mid-to-late rounds.
• Those who've labeled Brandon Lloyd a flash-in-the-pan will be sorely mistaken. Early last week, Denver Post writer Mike Klis fueled speculation John Fox wants less Orton-to-Lloyd this season, instead increasing reps for Moreno-McGahee. The assessment is largely true, but it's silly to think last year's surprise sensation will fall off the face of the earth.
Yes, Lloyd, who led WRs in points per game last year, is likely to head in a southbound direction. However, don't expect a dramatic drop-off. Recall under Fox's watch in Carolina Steve Smith ranked inside the top-five in per game output among wideouts three times from 2005-2008. And that was with Jake Delhomme chucking wounded ducks. Lloyd, who reeled in four catches for 55 yards in roughly a half of play versus Buffalo, is very capable of 75 receptions, 1,200 yards and 8-10 TDs in 2011. With a Y! ADP of 45.3 (WR16), he remains a great mid-round buy.
On consecutive drives, McGahee supplanted starter Knowshon Moreno inside the 20, scoring twice, once by ground, the other by air.
Identical to unfolding situations in San Diego and New Orleans, Denver seems committed to a well-defined two-back rotation. The Broncos' offense isn't nearly as explosive as the Chargers' or Saints', but Fox's ball control design should provide ample opportunities for McGahee to punch it in. It's unlikely he'll exceed 700 total yards, but 6-8 touchdowns are definitely attainable. He's a quality bench back emptying out of draft queues around pick No. 120 in Y! leagues.
• In his first game of the preseason, pokey-fresh wideout Plaxico Burress exhibited vintage form. Over two quarters of action against the hapless Bengals in a driving rainstorm, he grabbed three passes for 66 yards and a touchdown.
As we've discussed previously, Plax is still a viable red-zone threat despite his advanced age and two lost seasons. His skyward 6-foot-5 frame and ability to climb the ladder are nightmarish for undersized corners. As Rex Ryan stated post-game, "when he's covered, he's open."
Considering Ryan's desire to be more vertically aggressive this season, it's possible the 34-year-old could finish in the 65-850-8 range. His persistent ankle problems are a concern, but he's a strong WR3 candidate in 12-team leagues. Outside a pair of Moores, Lance and Denarius, there's no receiver with more upside after pick 100 (Plax's Y! ADP: 111.1).
• Finally, for those wondering whether or not Colt McCoy's growing fantasy prowess is legit, a quote from teammate Josh Cribbs:
Cribbs said one of the best things about McCoy is that he's getting everyone involved.
"He's doing great is spreading the football around," said Cribbs. "That's what this West Coast offense allows us to do. Some great athletes are going to come out of this offense. Colt is going to spread the ball around and the athletes are going to make plays."
Even with a group of unknown weapons, McCoy is blossoming before owner eyes. His 132.6 QB rating, which leads the preseason, is off-the-charts. Accurate, confident and wise in his reads and delivery, he's completed nearly 68-percent of his passes and averaged a stellar 8.3 yards per attempt. More importantly, he's making the players around him better. Guess Brett Favre's mentoring paid off. Let's just hope no salacious text messages of McCoy's 'Beevo' suddenly surface."He's doing great is spreading the football around," said Cribbs. "That's what this West Coast offense allows us to do. Some great athletes are going to come out of this offense. Colt is going to spread the ball around and the athletes are going to make plays."
Jokes aside, the Texas product is starting to look like this year's Ryan Fitzpatrick. Michael Vick and Peyton Manning buyers seeking a sturdy crutch in the later rounds (McCoy's Y! ADP: 112.1) need to take note. The second-year QB could very well be the position's biggest surprise in 2011.
(Note: For those that missed my take on Beanie Wells' potential post-Williams patella-shredding, read it here.)
Bring the noise on Twitter. Follow Brad @YahooNoise.
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