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A week of anticipation is almost over. The Final Four is almost here. Gonzaga and South Carolina will square off in the first of two national semifinals on Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET in Phoenix. The game between the two Final Four newcomers can be seen on CBS. Gonzaga is a 6.5-point favorite.
Before the Bulldogs and Gamecocks tip off, here is a dive into the most important aspect of Saturday’s contest:
KEY MATCHUP: Przemek Karnowski and Gonzaga’s post offense vs. South Carolina’s defense
Saturday’s first Final Four game is a battle between the two best defensive teams in college basketball. Despite their broad similarities on that end of the floor, though, Gonzaga and South Carolina are very different. Neither squad’s personnel mirrors the other’s. Neither’s style mirrors the other’s.*Their secrets to defensive success are very distinct.
There is nowhere, however, that the two styles are more contrasting than on offense. And of the two teams, one is better equipped to solve the other’s stout defense. That team is Gonzaga.
The thing that South Carolina does better than anything else, and possibly better than anyone else in the country, is put pressure on the ball 20-25 feet away from the basket. The Gamecocks hassle opposing ball handlers. They play high in passing lanes and aggressively defend players one pass away from the ball. They don’t do so over 94 feet like a team such as West Virginia does, but they force turnovers at a similarly high rate.
The issue for South Carolina is that Gonzaga’s offense isn’t perimeter-oriented. That’s not to say the Zags don’t have talented guards, and it’s not to say those guards don’t score, but Gonzaga initiates a good portion of its offense from the post. South Carolina has had mixed results against go-to big men this season, but Przemek Karnowski — 7-foot-1, 300-pound Przemek Karnowski, that is — will be an entirely new challenge.
Przemek Karnowski will give South Carolina problems inside. (Getty) The first question for South Carolina coach Frank Martin to answer is whether he thinks either 6-foot-9 sophomore Chris Silva or 6-foot-10 freshman Maik Kotsar can handle Karnowski 1-on-1. The answer to that question is probably no.
The pressing questions then become where the double-teams come from, how hard they come, and when they come. The broader question is, how comfortable does South Carolina feel making Gonzaga a jump-shooting team?
That’s because Karnowski passes out of the post as well as any center in college basketball. He reads the game well, can see over defenses, and isn’t overly affected by contact. He can find same-side shooters, opposite wings or cutters.
His kick-outs find shooters that rank 53rd nationally in 3-point shooting at 37.8 percent. All four guards are between 36 and 40 percent from beyond the arc, and the three reserve bigs are capable deep threats, but are far from specialists.
Two of Gonzaga’s NCAA tournament opponents have opted to challenge those shooters. South Dakota State packed the paint and dared Gonzaga to beat it from beyond the arc, and the strategy largely worked. Xavier, to a lesser extent, emulated the ploy, and paid for it. Gonzaga hit 12 of its 24 3-point attempts in an Elite Eight rout. So neither answer is definitively right or wrong.
Running double teams at Karnowski isn’t the only way to stem the flow of Gonzaga’s offense, though. Another way is to stem the flow of the ball to the post in the first place. After all, that’s what South Carolina’s personnel and scheme lend themselves to. The more the Gamecocks can take Karnowski and power forward Johnathan Williams out of the game, whether it’s via ball pressure or high-side post denials, the more they will disrupt Gonzaga’s offense.
If there’s relevant precedent for trying to take Karnowski out of the game, it’s probably last week’s Sweet 16 game between Gonzaga and West Virginia — a matchup many thought would force Karnowski to the bench because he wouldn’t be able to hang in such a frantic atmosphere. Karnowski did more than hang, though. He played 29 minutes, his second-highest single-game total since December. He scored 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting.
On the other hand, he did turn the ball over three times. Gonzaga coughed it up 16 times as a team. West Virginia’s high-pressure defense held the Zags to 0.91 points per possession, and just 41 percent from 2-point range.
If South Carolina can replicate the turnover-forcing, or even if it can simply knock the Zags off their starting marks and turn Gonzaga’s possessions into helter-skelter scrambles rather than organized, mechanical sets, it will take a big step toward dealing with Karnowski, interrupting Gonzaga’s entire offense and giving itself a chance to win.
But if the Zags can maintain composure under pressure, get the ball to Karnowski within 10 feet of the rim and play offense as they’re accustomed to, they have the pieces, the offensive structure and the experience to see off South Carolina and pull to within 40 minutes of a national championship.
Before the Bulldogs and Gamecocks tip off, here is a dive into the most important aspect of Saturday’s contest:
KEY MATCHUP: Przemek Karnowski and Gonzaga’s post offense vs. South Carolina’s defense
Saturday’s first Final Four game is a battle between the two best defensive teams in college basketball. Despite their broad similarities on that end of the floor, though, Gonzaga and South Carolina are very different. Neither squad’s personnel mirrors the other’s. Neither’s style mirrors the other’s.*Their secrets to defensive success are very distinct.
There is nowhere, however, that the two styles are more contrasting than on offense. And of the two teams, one is better equipped to solve the other’s stout defense. That team is Gonzaga.
The thing that South Carolina does better than anything else, and possibly better than anyone else in the country, is put pressure on the ball 20-25 feet away from the basket. The Gamecocks hassle opposing ball handlers. They play high in passing lanes and aggressively defend players one pass away from the ball. They don’t do so over 94 feet like a team such as West Virginia does, but they force turnovers at a similarly high rate.
The issue for South Carolina is that Gonzaga’s offense isn’t perimeter-oriented. That’s not to say the Zags don’t have talented guards, and it’s not to say those guards don’t score, but Gonzaga initiates a good portion of its offense from the post. South Carolina has had mixed results against go-to big men this season, but Przemek Karnowski — 7-foot-1, 300-pound Przemek Karnowski, that is — will be an entirely new challenge.
The pressing questions then become where the double-teams come from, how hard they come, and when they come. The broader question is, how comfortable does South Carolina feel making Gonzaga a jump-shooting team?
That’s because Karnowski passes out of the post as well as any center in college basketball. He reads the game well, can see over defenses, and isn’t overly affected by contact. He can find same-side shooters, opposite wings or cutters.
His kick-outs find shooters that rank 53rd nationally in 3-point shooting at 37.8 percent. All four guards are between 36 and 40 percent from beyond the arc, and the three reserve bigs are capable deep threats, but are far from specialists.
Two of Gonzaga’s NCAA tournament opponents have opted to challenge those shooters. South Dakota State packed the paint and dared Gonzaga to beat it from beyond the arc, and the strategy largely worked. Xavier, to a lesser extent, emulated the ploy, and paid for it. Gonzaga hit 12 of its 24 3-point attempts in an Elite Eight rout. So neither answer is definitively right or wrong.
Running double teams at Karnowski isn’t the only way to stem the flow of Gonzaga’s offense, though. Another way is to stem the flow of the ball to the post in the first place. After all, that’s what South Carolina’s personnel and scheme lend themselves to. The more the Gamecocks can take Karnowski and power forward Johnathan Williams out of the game, whether it’s via ball pressure or high-side post denials, the more they will disrupt Gonzaga’s offense.
If there’s relevant precedent for trying to take Karnowski out of the game, it’s probably last week’s Sweet 16 game between Gonzaga and West Virginia — a matchup many thought would force Karnowski to the bench because he wouldn’t be able to hang in such a frantic atmosphere. Karnowski did more than hang, though. He played 29 minutes, his second-highest single-game total since December. He scored 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting.
On the other hand, he did turn the ball over three times. Gonzaga coughed it up 16 times as a team. West Virginia’s high-pressure defense held the Zags to 0.91 points per possession, and just 41 percent from 2-point range.
If South Carolina can replicate the turnover-forcing, or even if it can simply knock the Zags off their starting marks and turn Gonzaga’s possessions into helter-skelter scrambles rather than organized, mechanical sets, it will take a big step toward dealing with Karnowski, interrupting Gonzaga’s entire offense and giving itself a chance to win.
But if the Zags can maintain composure under pressure, get the ball to Karnowski within 10 feet of the rim and play offense as they’re accustomed to, they have the pieces, the offensive structure and the experience to see off South Carolina and pull to within 40 minutes of a national championship.