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The two-game gap in the SEC standings between LSU and Alabama is deceptive when it comes to their respective NCAA tournament hopes.
The Crimson Tide have the stronger profile after upsetting the Tigers 76-69 on Wednesday night in Baton Rouge.
Alabama is 16-9 overall and 37th in the RPI; LSU is 16-10 and 74th in the RPI. Alabama is 5-5 against the RPI top 50 and boasts quality wins over Notre Dame, Wichita State, Texas A&M, Florida and South Carolina. LSU is 3-5 against the RPI top 50 with quality wins over Kentucky and Texas A&M. Alabama has dropped only one game against an opponent with an RPI below 100; LSU has three such losses.*
It's quite possible that both the Tigers and Crimson Tide may sneak into the NCAA tournament, but it's also clear which one has more work to do over the next few weeks. Alabama should be in good shape if it avoids bad losses at home against Mississippi State, Auburn and Arkansas. LSU needs to win at least a game or two on the road to feel confident heading into the SEC tournament.
That Alabama is in better position than LSU is remarkable considering the expectations for both programs entering the season.
The Crimson Tide were projected 13th in the SEC because new coach Avery Johnson inherited what was thought to be a threadbare roster. The Tigers were a preseason Top 25 team thanks to the arrival of a highly touted freshman class highlighted by future No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons.
Simmons had a 20-point, 10-rebound night against Alabama on Wednesday, but his nine missed foul shots were costly. He was upstaged by Alabama guard Retin Obasohan, who finished with 35 points.
WEDNESDAY'S BUBBLE WINNERS
TEXAS TECH (16-9, 6-7): Could the Big 12 really get seven of its 10 teams into the NCAA tournament? It's looking more and more likely with Texas Tech reeling off three straight victories over Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma to play its way into contention. That trio of marquee wins coupled with previous victories over Texas and mid-major powers Hawaii and Arkansas-Little Rock give the Red Raiders a decent resume. They also only have one loss against a team outside the top 50 and it came on the road against an Arkansas team that's tough to beat at home. If Texas Tech can win three more regular season games to improve to 9-9 in the Big 12, it's likely to earn an NCAA bid. Even at 8-10, it might still have a shot.*
SAINT JOSEPH'S (22-4, 11-4): Not only did Saint Joseph's gain a share of first place in the Atlantic 10 with its victory over Dayton on Wednesday night, the Hawks also bolstered their NCAA tournament hopes. It was just the sort of marquee victory Phil Martelli's team needed to validate a gaudy record that lacked a lot of substance. Saint Joseph's entered the night having played just seven top 100 opponents. Their worst loss came against a VCU team contending for an NCAA bid, however, their most impressive wins came against Princeton, George Washington or Temple. Now Saint Joseph's has a win over a surefire NCAA tournament team. That should be enough to put the Hawks in the field as of today, but they would be wise to keep winning.
Other bubble winners: Seton Hall (defeated Georgetown) George Washington (defeated Duquesne), Clemson (defeated Boston College)
WEDNESDAY'S BUBBLE LOSERS
COLORADO (19-8, 8-6): For a few fleeting moments, it appeared Colorado was going to solidify itself as an NCAA tournament team with a marquee road win at USC. Then the Buffaloes were entirely stymied by a zone defense, squandered a 15-point second-half lead and suffered a painful loss. Colorado still appears to be in solid position to secure an NCAA bid by virtue of its top 30 RPI, but a closer look at the Buffs' profile reveals there's not a whole lot there. They haven't lost to any teams outside the KenPom top 75 but their lone wins against NCAA tournament contenders came at home against Oregon, Oregon State and Cal. For that reason, a win Wednesday would have been huge. Instead Colorado will have to try to find a couple more victories against a remaining schedule that includes UCLA, Arizona and Utah.*
FLORIDA STATE (16-10, 6-8): Before Wednesday's home upset at the hands of Georgia Tech, the one thing Florida State had going for it was a lack of losses against non-NCAA tournament contenders. That's out the window now because the Yellowjackets are 4-9 in the ACC even after their victory. Where that leaves Florida State is in dire need of a strong finish to secure an NCAA bid. Besides a critical victory over ACC contender Virginia last month, the Seminoles' best wins are against bubble teams Florida, VCU and Clemson. They have a few chances to add to that list with games remaining against Duke, Notre Dame and Syracuse. A win or two against that group would go a long way toward solidifying Florida State in the field.
Other bubble losers: Temple (lost to Villanova); Syracuse (lost to Louisville) St. Bonaventure (lost to La Salle)
The Crimson Tide have the stronger profile after upsetting the Tigers 76-69 on Wednesday night in Baton Rouge.
Alabama is 16-9 overall and 37th in the RPI; LSU is 16-10 and 74th in the RPI. Alabama is 5-5 against the RPI top 50 and boasts quality wins over Notre Dame, Wichita State, Texas A&M, Florida and South Carolina. LSU is 3-5 against the RPI top 50 with quality wins over Kentucky and Texas A&M. Alabama has dropped only one game against an opponent with an RPI below 100; LSU has three such losses.*
It's quite possible that both the Tigers and Crimson Tide may sneak into the NCAA tournament, but it's also clear which one has more work to do over the next few weeks. Alabama should be in good shape if it avoids bad losses at home against Mississippi State, Auburn and Arkansas. LSU needs to win at least a game or two on the road to feel confident heading into the SEC tournament.
That Alabama is in better position than LSU is remarkable considering the expectations for both programs entering the season.
The Crimson Tide were projected 13th in the SEC because new coach Avery Johnson inherited what was thought to be a threadbare roster. The Tigers were a preseason Top 25 team thanks to the arrival of a highly touted freshman class highlighted by future No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons.
Simmons had a 20-point, 10-rebound night against Alabama on Wednesday, but his nine missed foul shots were costly. He was upstaged by Alabama guard Retin Obasohan, who finished with 35 points.
WEDNESDAY'S BUBBLE WINNERS
TEXAS TECH (16-9, 6-7): Could the Big 12 really get seven of its 10 teams into the NCAA tournament? It's looking more and more likely with Texas Tech reeling off three straight victories over Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma to play its way into contention. That trio of marquee wins coupled with previous victories over Texas and mid-major powers Hawaii and Arkansas-Little Rock give the Red Raiders a decent resume. They also only have one loss against a team outside the top 50 and it came on the road against an Arkansas team that's tough to beat at home. If Texas Tech can win three more regular season games to improve to 9-9 in the Big 12, it's likely to earn an NCAA bid. Even at 8-10, it might still have a shot.*
SAINT JOSEPH'S (22-4, 11-4): Not only did Saint Joseph's gain a share of first place in the Atlantic 10 with its victory over Dayton on Wednesday night, the Hawks also bolstered their NCAA tournament hopes. It was just the sort of marquee victory Phil Martelli's team needed to validate a gaudy record that lacked a lot of substance. Saint Joseph's entered the night having played just seven top 100 opponents. Their worst loss came against a VCU team contending for an NCAA bid, however, their most impressive wins came against Princeton, George Washington or Temple. Now Saint Joseph's has a win over a surefire NCAA tournament team. That should be enough to put the Hawks in the field as of today, but they would be wise to keep winning.
Other bubble winners: Seton Hall (defeated Georgetown) George Washington (defeated Duquesne), Clemson (defeated Boston College)
WEDNESDAY'S BUBBLE LOSERS
COLORADO (19-8, 8-6): For a few fleeting moments, it appeared Colorado was going to solidify itself as an NCAA tournament team with a marquee road win at USC. Then the Buffaloes were entirely stymied by a zone defense, squandered a 15-point second-half lead and suffered a painful loss. Colorado still appears to be in solid position to secure an NCAA bid by virtue of its top 30 RPI, but a closer look at the Buffs' profile reveals there's not a whole lot there. They haven't lost to any teams outside the KenPom top 75 but their lone wins against NCAA tournament contenders came at home against Oregon, Oregon State and Cal. For that reason, a win Wednesday would have been huge. Instead Colorado will have to try to find a couple more victories against a remaining schedule that includes UCLA, Arizona and Utah.*
FLORIDA STATE (16-10, 6-8): Before Wednesday's home upset at the hands of Georgia Tech, the one thing Florida State had going for it was a lack of losses against non-NCAA tournament contenders. That's out the window now because the Yellowjackets are 4-9 in the ACC even after their victory. Where that leaves Florida State is in dire need of a strong finish to secure an NCAA bid. Besides a critical victory over ACC contender Virginia last month, the Seminoles' best wins are against bubble teams Florida, VCU and Clemson. They have a few chances to add to that list with games remaining against Duke, Notre Dame and Syracuse. A win or two against that group would go a long way toward solidifying Florida State in the field.
Other bubble losers: Temple (lost to Villanova); Syracuse (lost to Louisville) St. Bonaventure (lost to La Salle)