Will unemployment be around 12.2% by New Year's, given the current trend we're...

**Evan** · 06-12-2009, 08:59 AM

...seeing? It was 8.1% in February, 8.5% in March, 8.9 % in April, and 9.4% in May. We will see in the beginning of July what June's figure will be. My point is, each month we've been seeing a rise of about .4%.

Will this trend continue, and if so, wouldn't that put us at around 12.2% by the end of the year? I don't understand why some news articles I've been reading have been forecasting an unemployment rate of only 10 - 10.5% by early next year....

**SacraVeritas** · 06-12-2009, 09:00 AM

It's artificially low now because of seasonal jobs. I think we're looking at Thanksgiving for 12.2%

**Sean** · 06-13-2009, 08:31 AM

Remember also that the unemployment figure are just the people drawing unemployment not the actual amount of people unemployed.

The actual number of unemployed people is probably close to 20%

**Tifa** · 06-13-2009, 08:32 AM

Blacks are seldom productive anyway.

**Isthisa3Kmeetingm** · 06-13-2009, 08:33 AM

Yes. And by the end of 2015, it will be 110%!

Unless, of course, you're committing a classic "Malthusian fallacy."

**jehen** · 06-13-2009, 08:33 AM

It may get that high, but it does not look like it will. The leading indicators are pointing to the beginning of a recovery. Employment is a lagging indicator so unemployment continues to go up even after the 'bottom' of economic activity has been reached.

2 Big things could wreck any recovery.
1. A collapse in the commercial real estate market. It did not crash when home prices did. But Could and in fact may have already started to crash
2. Oil at $150/bbl. It will get that high again (there simply is not enough of it for the long haul) but if it get that high too soon it will snuff out the recovery.

**jehen** · 06-13-2009, 08:33 AM

It may get that high, but it does not look like it will. The leading indicators are pointing to the beginning of a recovery. Employment is a lagging indicator so unemployment continues to go up even after the 'bottom' of economic activity has been reached.

2 Big things could wreck any recovery.
1. A collapse in the commercial real estate market. It did not crash when home prices did. But Could and in fact may have already started to crash
2. Oil at $150/bbl. It will get that high again (there simply is not enough of it for the long haul) but if it get that high too soon it will snuff out the recovery.

**LevontheMan** · 06-13-2009, 08:33 AM

Imo..I think it's already over 12%. I think they're low-balling those numbers. Just look around your own state.

**Sageandscholar** · 06-13-2009, 08:34 AM

The reason the articles are not forecasting this trend to continue is that signs of an imminent economic recovery are already in place.
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/05052009/325/bernanke-says-u-s-recovery-ahead.html

**AgentSmith** · 06-13-2009, 08:34 AM

Much higher.

Multiply GM X 10.

The 14 plants Obama is moth balling have hundreds of feeder plants.

This is big.

Now you see why the Dems saved the stimulus money for next year.

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