Will unemployment be around 12.2% by New Year's, given the current trend we're...

E

Evan

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May 11, 2008
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...seeing? It was 8.1% in February, 8.5% in March, 8.9 % in April, and 9.4% in May. We will see in the beginning of July what June's figure will be. My point is, each month we've been seeing a rise of about .4%.
Will this trend continue, and if so, wouldn't that put us at around 12.2% by the end of the year? I don't understand why some news articles I've been reading have been forecasting an unemployment rate of only 10 - 10.5% by early next year....
 
Remember also that the unemployment figure are just the people drawing unemployment not the actual amount of people unemployed.

The actual number of unemployed people is probably close to 20%
 
It may get that high, but it does not look like it will. The leading indicators are pointing to the beginning of a recovery. Employment is a lagging indicator so unemployment continues to go up even after the 'bottom' of economic activity has been reached.

2 Big things could wreck any recovery.
1. A collapse in the commercial real estate market. It did not crash when home prices did. But Could and in fact may have already started to crash
2. Oil at $150/bbl. It will get that high again (there simply is not enough of it for the long haul) but if it get that high too soon it will snuff out the recovery.
 
It may get that high, but it does not look like it will. The leading indicators are pointing to the beginning of a recovery. Employment is a lagging indicator so unemployment continues to go up even after the 'bottom' of economic activity has been reached.

2 Big things could wreck any recovery.
1. A collapse in the commercial real estate market. It did not crash when home prices did. But Could and in fact may have already started to crash
2. Oil at $150/bbl. It will get that high again (there simply is not enough of it for the long haul) but if it get that high too soon it will snuff out the recovery.
 
Imo..I think it's already over 12%. I think they're low-balling those numbers. Just look around your own state.
 
The reason the articles are not forecasting this trend to continue is that signs of an imminent economic recovery are already in place.
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/05052009/325/bernanke-says-u-s-recovery-ahead.html
 
Much higher.

Multiply GM X 10.

The 14 plants Obama is moth balling have hundreds of feeder plants.

This is big.

Now you see why the Dems saved the stimulus money for next year.
 
Many people in the know by doing research of their fields have all said it will remain around 10%

that is bad enough...lets just hope they are correct
 
yea but i don't think it will stay up there that long. but then again most thought it would have gone down by now.
 
It's possible, but I'm starting to think these so-called economic 'experts' don't really know and are just making educated guesses.
 
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