- Admin
- #1
John Collins scored 25 points and grabbed 11 rebounds to lead the Demon Deacons to an 88-81 upset of eighth-ranked Louisville.
The huge win was only Wake Forest’s second all season against a surefire NCAA tournament team. The Demon Deacons (17-12, 8-9) had also defeated Miami on Jan. 18, but they were 1-9 against RPI top 50 opponents thanks in part to a pair of painful near misses against Duke and another against North Carolina.
It appeared Wednesday’s game might end in more frustration for Wake Forest when Louisville trimmed an 11-point second-half deficit to three with less than five minutes to go. But*Konstantinos Mitoglou and Mitchell Wilbekin sank back-to-back 3-pointers and the Demon Deacons were able to close out the Cardinals.
Wake Forest did not wrap up an NCAA bid with the win, but the Demon Deacons took a big step toward that goal. A win at Virginia Tech on Saturday might be enough, as might a couple ACC tournament wins.
It would be a shame if Wake Forest was unable to reach the NCAA tournament because Collins deserves the chance to showcase his talents on that stage. Collins, a surprise candidate for ACC player of the year, sank 7 of 12 shots from the field*to finish with 20 or more points for the 12th straight game.
*
WEEKDAY BUBBLE WINNERS:*
Northwestern (21-9, 10-7, KenPom 37, RPI 50): Northwestern sealed its first NCAA tournament bid in the most incredible way imaginable. Dererk Pardon snagged a length-of-the-floor inbound pass from teammate Nathan Taphorn and scored a tie-breaking layup at the buzzer, giving the Wildcats a dramatic 67-65 victory over Michigan. Northwestern had dropped*five of its previous seven games entering Wednesday night, raising concerns that a late collapse could cost the Wildcats their bid. But with Wednesday’s win over Michigan, previous victories over Wisconsin, Dayton and Wake Forest and no losses to teams outside the top 100, Northwestern can start to celebrate. The curse is over. The Wildcats are safe.
Illinois (18-12, 8-9, KenPom: 65, RPI: 56): A strong finish to the regular season could propel Illinois to the NCAA tournament. The Illini won for the fifth time in six games on Wednesday night when they survived two potential game-tying shots in the final seconds of a 73-70 victory over Michigan State. Assuming Illinois can avoid a disastrous loss to Rutgers this weekend, the Illini suddenly will have a pretty good case for the NCAA tournament. They have solid wins over Northwestern (2), Michigan, Michigan State and VCU and no losses to any team outside the RPI top 100.
Kansas State (18-12, 7-10, KenPom 35, RPI 67):*TCU had lost five straight. Kansas State had dropped eight of 10. As a result, their second meeting this season was as close to a bubble elimination game as you can have at this stage of the season. Kansas State prevailed 75-74 despite nearly letting an 11-point halftime lead slip away. The Wildcats boast quality wins over Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Baylor and no truly dreadful losses, though a 30-point beatdown against Oklahoma wasn’t great. If Kansas State can win its final Big 12 game against Texas Tech and a game or two in the conference tournament, it will certainly have a realistic shot.
Marquette (18-11, 9-8, KenPom 33, RPI 72): Facing Xavier twice without Edmond Sumner sure has been helpful for Marquette. The Golden Eagles got their second victory in less than two weeks against the tailspinning Musketeers, boosting their own NCAA tournament hopes. Throw in a pair of marquee wins against Villanova and Creighton and victories over bubble teams Seton Hall and Georgia, and Marquette has a better list of wins than many other bubble teams on this list. The Golden Eagles can further solidify their position with a season sweep of Creighton on Saturday or with a deep run in the Big East tournament.
Georgia (18-12, 9-8 KenPom 52, RPI 54): A one-point home win over Auburn is typically not worth getting excited about, but Georgia will take it under the circumstances. The Bulldogs are still without Yante Maten, who suffered a knee injury two minutes into a Feb. 18 loss to Kentucky and has missed his team’s past three games. Credit Georgia for staying afloat without Maten, but the Bulldogs need to do more to get a bid. A win at Arkansas on Saturday would boost a resume devoid of marquee wins, as would picking off someone good in the SEC tournament.
Other bubble winners:* USC (beat Washington State), Texas Tech (beat Texas), Georgia Tech (beat Pittsburgh), Providence (beat DePaul) Seton Hall (beat Georgetown), Rhode Island (beat St. Joseph’s)
WEEKDAY BUBBLE LOSERS:*
Xavier (18-12, 8-9, KenPom 40, RPI 26): A*Xavier team that was once a near lock for the NCAA tournament has plunged toward the bubble in recent weeks. The Musketeers fell 95-84*at home against Marquette on Wednesday night, their sixth consecutive loss. Whether Xavier would make the NCAA tournament today might depend on if the committee focus on their overall body of work or their performance since starting point guard Edmond Sumner’s ACL tear. The Musketeers have some decent wins over Creighton, Wake Forest, Providence and Seton Hall, but they are just 3-6 without Sumner including losses to a trio of fellow Big East bubble teams.
TCU (17-13, 6-11, KenPom 43, RPI 58):*The Horned Frogs’ chances of making the NCAA tournament under first-year coach Jamie Dixon took a massive hit on Wednesday night. They lost 75-74 at home to Kansas State in what was hailed as an elimination game for both bubble teams. Now five games below .500 in league play and lacking marquee wins, TCU simply hasn’t done enough to stay on the fringes of the bubble. Barring a stunning Big 12 tournament run, the best-case scenario is the NIT.
Vanderbilt (16-14, 9-8, KenPom 43, RPI 48): When Vanderbilt forged a 19-point first-half lead at Kentucky on Tuesday night, it appeared the Commodores might be on their way toward a season-changing road win. Then they alas failed to hold that lead, wasting a huge chance to land a marquee victory and*narrowing their path to a potential NCAA tournament bid. To have any hope, Vanderbilt needs to beat Florida on Saturday, make a deep SEC tournament run and then pray that the bubble stays soft enough for a 15-loss SEC team to have a shot. The Commodores have some good wins over Florida, Iowa State, Arkansas and South Carolina, but a loss to Missouri is damaging.
Other bubble losers:*Arkansas (lost at Florida); Ole Miss (lost at Alabama)
– – – – – – –
Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
Follow @JeffEisenberg