I understand the complexity math and that it takes TH/s to have a decent chance at discovering a block and getting paid, but if I was a solo miner running at around 500 GH/s would I make any BTC without a discovery?

Also, what is a formula I can use to calculate probability using the current complexity number and my MH/s, GH/s, or TH/s? I'm not too worried about power overhead because I have access to free industrial power in a data center.