Mostly MLB Notes: Max Scherzer and a look around the league

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Max Scherzer was almost unanimously the second pitcher off the board in drafts this spring, often in the mid-second round. So far he’s produced a 4.60 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, and owners have been saddled with the No. 145 overall player. Scherzer has 48 strikeouts over 46.0 innings, so his K rate remains strong (albeit not as strong as usual), but home runs have been a major problem, a theme ever since he joined the Nationals. In fact, he’s allowed 36 homers over 271.2 innings since joining Washington. He served up that same total over his final two years in Detroit, which spanned 434.2 innings. Not only is that unusual going from the A.L. to the N.L., but Nationals Park has also decreased home runs by 16 percent over the last three seasons, which is the fifth lowest in major league baseball. Scherzer’s nine homers served up are tied for the most in MLB this season.
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Scherzer can remain plenty effective giving up the long ball, as he posted a 2.79 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP last season despite yielding 27 (tied for 14th most in MLB), and his current 19.1 HR/FB% should probably be considered a fluke. Scherzer’s average fastball velocity remains as strong as ever (94.0 mph), and his 12.6 SwStr% ranks No. 11 in baseball. Washington has one of the better defenses combined with a bullpen and offense that both rank in the top-10 in MLB, so Scherzer has a lot working for him. I’m betting his home run rate regresses to somewhere around his career norm of 10.5% moving forward, so he’s a pretty obvious buy-low if you can pull it off.
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