Fantasy NASCAR cheat sheet for Auto Club 400

admin

Administrator
Jun 17, 2007
66,216
0
36
49
Canada
0519bfebe262b76712e4716aae079c93
Chase Elliott waves to the crowd during driver introductions for the race at Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso) Fantasy NASCAR cheat sheet for Auto Club Speedway
Special to Yahoo Sports
By Dan Beaver
A late-race caution at the end of the Camping World 500k threw players a curveball, but it’s time to tighten the grip and take another swing. The Auto Club 400 marks the third race on an unrestricted, intermediate speedway. Momentum gathered in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 and Kobalt 400 carries over to Auto Club Speedway, which gives fantasy owners a great set of notes from which to work.
1. Chase Elliott
Last year, Elliott was almost perfect on two-mile tracks. He finished sixth at Auto Club and second in both Michigan events. This is the week he will get his first Cup win.
2. Brad Keselowski
Last week’s fifth-place finish in the Camping World 500k was not pretty, but it gave Keselowski his third consecutive top-five for the season.
3. Kevin Harvick
He did not dominate Phoenix like he has done in the past, but when the flagman reached behind him for the checkers, Harvick was solidly inside the top 10.
[Sign up for Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing]
4. Joey Logano
Once he got shuffled back in the pack because of a penalty, Logano lost control of his fate. The two-mile tracks are a little more forgiving and passing is easier.
5. Kyle Larson
The No. 42 team is learning every way there is to lose a Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race, but Larson now has five top-three results in his last six races.
6. Jimmie Johnson
It is too soon to tell if the monkey is truly off Johnson’s back, but he loosened its grip at Phoenix. He won at Auto Club last year for the sixth time in his career.
7. Ryan Blaney
Three of the four most consistently strong drivers so far this season have four or fewer years’ experience. Blaney is flirting with top-fives and should win sometime in 2017.
8. Kyle Busch
He has three Auto Club wins to his credit, two of which came back-to-back in 2013/2014, but that did not keep Busch from sustaining crash damage last year to finish 25th.
9. Denny Hamlin
Forced to the back on two separate occasions, Hamlin passed more cars last week at Phoenix than anyone else. That gives him momentum and confidence for Auto Club.
10. Martin Truex Jr.
The short, flat track was not supposed to be Truex’s best venue, but he salvaged a decent finish at Phoenix and now has a sweep of the top 15 this season.
11. Erik Jones
It did not take long for Jones to earn his first top-10 as a rookie. Now, he is riding a three-race, top-15 streak that arguably makes him the best value in almost any game.
12. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
The two-mile tracks have been extremely kind to Roush-Fenway Racing in the past. Stenhouse earned a rare top-five in last year’s Auto Club 400 and he was top five last week at Phoenix.
13. Clint Bowyer
He has the speed, but it is taking a little while for Bowyer to figure out how to control a race. Top-15s will be common for a while; top-10s a little rarer.
14. Ryan Newman
A gamble on old tires gave Newman the win at Phoenix, but he worked his way into the top 10 and would have finished strong regardless.
15. Kurt Busch
The 2017 season is beginning to look a lot like 2016 for Busch. A victory locked him into the playoffs last year and then his results took a hit.
16. Paul Menard
He might not be the first driver who comes to mind on unrestricted, intermediate speedways, but Menard has a 13-race streak of results 18th or better on the two-milers.
17. Daniel Suarez
Now that he has a top-10 under his belt, Suarez should have the confidence to consistently contend for top-15s. Fantasy owners will get a chance to see how he really performs now.
18. Jamie McMurray
Chip Ganassi Racing is the most improved organization in the field. McMurray had a solid top-10 in his pocket at Phoenix until the final caution jumbled the field.
19. Ty Dillon
The Rookie of the Year finally heated up at Phoenix. Dillon had a shot at a top-15 along with Jones and Suarez, but he was overwhelmed by the veterans at the end.
20. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
While he finally recorded a top-15 last week at Phoenix, Earnhardt still does not look like he is ready to score top-10s. Until he does, he is a bad value.
21. Matt Kenseth
The driver of the No. 20 has three wins at Auto Club, but the latest of these came in 2009. Kenseth is probably a little shell-shocked and sore after last week’s crash.
22. Trevor Bayne
A 19th-place finish in the Camping World 500k was Bayne’s worst result of the season. Jack Roush literally built Auto Club and knows a thing or two about going fast there.
23. Austin Dillon
In three previous Auto Club starts, Dillon has been slipping down the finishing order. Last year his 24th-place result in the Auto Club 400 came after he qualified on the pole.
24. Kasey Kahne
He had another strong run going last week, but Kahne fell back to 20th at the checkers and did not earn enough points to make him a favorite.
25. Aric Almirola
In the last two races, Almirola has finished on the lead lap and that gives him a chance to move up the grid if something happens to a competitor in the late stages.
26. AJ Allmendinger
Until he learns how to contend for segment points, Allmendinger is going to languish in the standings. His results will hover just outside the middle of the pack.
27. Chris Buescher
The No. 37 will finish somewhere in the mid-20s this week. Knowing that, fantasy owners can decide if Buescher fits the right niche on their roster.
28. David Ragan
With only one lead-lap finish in his last 23 starts, it is difficult to be overly optimistic about Ragan’s odds at Auto Club. More and more drivers are able to go the full distance each week.
29. Danica Patrick
She really needs a strong finish to convince fantasy owners to roll the dice on the No. 10. On the two-mile tracks, Patrick has finished in the top 20 in half of her attempts.
30. Matt DiBenedetto
With fairly consistent results in the high-20s, DiBenedetto is beating one-fourth to one-third of the field each week. Success in fantasy NASCAR often means making the right choices this high on the list.
31. Landon Cassill
One thing is almost certain: Cassill will finish better than he qualifies this week. He has done that in 12 of his last 13 attempts.
32. Michael McDowell
Last year, McDowell certainly showed consistency on the two-mile tracks with 31st-place finishes at Auto Club and his single Michigan attempt.
33. Reed Sorenson
He is doing the best with the equipment at his disposal and results around the 30th position are the high water mark for Sorenson.
34. Cole Whitt
If a player needs to roll the dice in a salary cap game, Whitt is not a bad choice. Before his accident last week in Phoenix, he had three top-30s in the first three races.
35. Gray Gaulding
The relief of finally finishing a race at Las Vegas was short-lived for Gaulding. He crashed at Phoenix more than 100 laps from the checkers.
36. Jeffrey Earnhardt
Unrestricted, intermediate speedways are not typically kind to lightly-funded teams, so fantasy owners should ignore Earnhardt and concentrate on the top drivers.
37. Derrike Cope
It is not enough to make a fantasy player want to activate Cope just yet, but in three starts this season he has finished better each week. He was 33rd at Phoenix.
38. Corey LaJoie
A cut tire and hard trip into the wall at Phoenix reconfirmed just how star-crossed LaJoie has been so far in 2017.
39. Timmy Hill
With three previous starts on two-mile tracks, Hill actually has a little experience from which to draw. His best effort on the track type was a 29th in 2013.
For more analysis, go to DanBeaver.com or follow him on Twitter
 
Back
Top