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But I just as easily could have written them on something else. I just as easily could have written them on a month. I just as easily could have written them on March.
March arrived this year for me at around 7:45 p.m. CT on the first day of the month, when, during the final two minutes of Northwestern-Michigan in Evanston, NU athletic director Jim Phillips got up from his midcourt seat at Welsh-Ryan Arena and went for a walk.
He stared straight ahead, emotion completely washed from his face and instead surely raging inside of him. He retreated back into the depths of the old gym. He paced through the concourse, right in front of me, during a timeout, unable to confront what was about to transpire before him on the court.
Phillips’ nerves, in a way, were very unique to Northwestern. But they were also replicas — even if intensified, incomprehensible-to-the-average-fan replicas — of what so many college basketball fans will feel over the next month. There is nothing more intoxicating than the unease of a do-or-die basketball game coupled with the possibility of that game ending in unbridled joy.
As a prominent college hoops Twitter bot writer likes to say…
This. Is. March.
And as he’ll also occasionally remind you, in college basketball — and especially in March — “the unexpected becomes the ordinary.”
So it only seems right to dedicate this week’s Power Rankings to the unexpected, and to the ordinary, and to unpredictability. Unpredictability is what makes sports what they are, and what makes college basketball especially what it is.
The criteria for ordering the top 20 teams in this week’s Power Ranks are unchanged — you can read those criteria*here — but this week’s analysis is all about unpredictability. On a scale of 1-10, with 10 representing wild fluctuations in performance and 1 representing a sustained level of play from game to game, how unpredictable are college basketball’s title contenders?
That’s the question. Here are the answers.
1. Kansas |*27-3 | KenPom: 9 | Last week: 1
Kansas has had some very strange halves of basketball, and some puzzling 10-minute stretches, but, game to game, it’s been pretty darn consistent over the past three-plus months. You know what you’re going to get from Frank Mason, you usually know what you’re going to get from Devonte’ Graham, and lately you’ve known what you’re going to get from Josh Jackson, which is a great sign. Unpredictability index: 2.
2. Villanova*| 27-3*| KenPom: 2 | Last week: 3
Last week’s Power Rankings discussed the “live by the 3, die by the 3” label that often gets placed on Villanova. And again, to some extent, it’s fair, even if the negative connotations that come with it are silly. When Villanova goes cold, it often goes cold. But its fundamentals on either end of the floor are invariably very strong, and it has players with experience in the biggest of moments. Unpredictability index: 3.
3. North Carolina*| 25-6*| KenPom: 3 | Last week: 2
Just when we thought the Tar Heels looked like arguably the best team in college hoops, they laid an egg in Charlottesville, scoring just 43 points in a 10-point loss at Virginia. There’s not too much shame in getting shut down by the nation’s best defense, but every time North Carolina teases its fans with thoughts that this year’s team could be as good as, if not better than, last year’s, it seems to let them down, even if only temporarily. Unpredictability index: 6.
4. Gonzaga*| 29-1*| KenPom: 1 | Last week: 4
Unpredictability is fundamentally a predictive concept, so it’s important to keep in mind that when we talk about Gonzaga, we consider the fact that the Bulldogs have played just one NCAA tournament team since Dec. 3. Gonzaga’s unpredictability index score if it were about to head into another round of 18 games against the WCC would be a 1. It has been as consistent as any team throughout the season. One loss doesn’t change that. But heading into March, there’s a sense that a lot of what needs to be learned about this Gonzaga team is not yet understood. Unpredictability index: 4.
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5. UCLA*| 27-3*| KenPom: 12*| Last week: 6
The offense is consistently outstanding. The defense is consistently intriguing yet maddeningly imperfect. There’s also the strength of schedule issue: UCLA has only played three top-100 teams since January. The offense is opponent-proof — to the extent that any college basketball offense can be opponent-proof, at least. But the defense is still a question mark. Unpredictability index: 6.
6. Duke*| 23-7*| KenPom: 16 | Last week: 5
A month ago, Duke would have forced the unpredictability index to recalibrate. Now its mood swings have subsided a bit, but the Blue Devils still aren’t the team they could potentially be. That means there is still plenty of uncertainty abound. Unpredictability index: 7.
7. Oregon*| 26-4*| KenPom: 17 | Last week: 8
Oregon has had some standard home/road fluctuations, but even its one initially confounding loss, at Colorado, doesn’t look anywhere near as bad now as it did at the time. The Ducks have been volatile (often in a good way) in past years, but this team, often fueled by its defense, has been very dependable. Unpredictability index: 3.
8. Louisville*| 23-7*| KenPom: 8 | Last week: 7
The Cardinals looked outstanding on Sunday against Syracuse, then caught a desperate Wake team on the road. Throughout the season, they’ve never quite reached their ceiling, and when they have, it’s been in tiny chunks, one or a few games at a time. That’s not to say Louisville couldn’t peak at the right time, but the time is now. Unpredictability index: 5.
9. Arizona*| 26-4*| KenPom: 22 | Last week: 10
Arizona is a very good yet unremarkable team that still has room for growth, but probably not too much room. And Sean Miller is an outstanding coach who rarely, if ever, lets his team’s performance slip*below its baseline. Unpredictability index: 2.
10. Kentucky*| 25-5*| KenPom: 7 | Last week: 12
Malik Monk unpredictability index: 12. Kentucky team unpredictability index: 9.
11. West Virginia*| 23-7*| KenPom: 4 | Last week: 9
This one’s as much about style as anything else. West Virginia’s dominance in a given game can snowball, but so can its ineffectiveness. Then there’s the matchup factor: The press will trouble some teams significantly more than others. Unpredictability index: 7.
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12. Baylor*| 24-6*| KenPom: 11 | Last week: 11
Their wins have almost all been close… their losses have almost all been close… the Bears, who play slow, and play consistently stout defense, are as predictable — predictably good, but never predictably exceptional — as any team in the top 20, and have been for a while. Unpredictability index: 1.
13. Virginia*| 20-9*| KenPom: 6 | Last week: 15
Most teams that can sandwich four consecutive losses in between two top-10 wins would be tough to figure out. Virginia is anything but. Its offense is and will be above average but unspectacular; its defense is and will be the best unit in college basketball; and its pace is and will be the slowest, 351st in adjusted tempo and average offensive possession length. Yes, the offense has oscillated between efficient and dreadful; no, it won’t continue to. Unpredictability index: 3.
14. Florida*| 24-6*| KenPom: 5 | Last week: 13
Kentucky soared to a height the Gators couldn’t quite reach in the second half of Saturday’s SEC showdown, but Florida has outmanned every other team it has played since Dec. 11. Its two other losses were both close and fluky. The small sample size without John Egbunu makes them slightly more difficult to forecast, but Mike White’s second season has given us a pretty good idea of what the Gators are, and what they will be going forward. Unpredictability index: 3.
15. Purdue*| 24-6*| KenPom: 13 | Last week: 14
Three of Purdue’s four Big Ten losses — home against Minnesota, at Iowa and at Nebraska — have been downright weird. Some of the Boilermakers’ Big Ten wins — by 11 over pre-slump Wisconsin, by 21 over Northwestern, by 11 and 17 over Michigan State, and by 1 at Maryland — have been downright impressive. And even their two non-conference losses, vs. Villanova and at Louisville, told of a team that can compete with the nation’s best. But that team will also be very vulnerable to a first-round upset in both the conference and NCAA tournaments. Unpredictability index: 8.
16. Oklahoma State*| 20-10*| KenPom: 19 | Last week: NR
The Cowboys make their Power Rankings debut after a loss to Iowa State, but more so after winning 10 of 11 and jumping into the KenPom top 20. They averaged 1.20 points per possession in February against some very good defenses, and never dipped below 1.08 in a single game. That 1.08 came in a three-point loss to Baylor. Oklahoma State has been up and down on the defensive end, but ever since its mid-January turnaround, it has looked like a real March threat. Unpredictability index: 4.
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17. Notre Dame*| 23-7*| KenPom: 25 | Last week: 16
The Fighting Irish hit a rough patch in late January, but have now won six in a row. But both the low point and the high point were exaggerated by the relative strength of competition during the two stretches. There isn’t much unknown about Notre Dame at this point. Unpredictability index: 3.
18. Florida State*| 23-7*| KenPom: 18 | Last week: 17
¯\_(?)_/¯ Unpredictability index: 10.
19. SMU*| 26-4*| KenPom: 14 | Last week: 18
It’s just tough to get a read on the Mustangs when they’re playing in a league like the AAC with as many teams ranked below No. 190 as ones ranked above No. 75 (KenPom). The 12-game win streak is magnificent, but it might be deceiving. We just don’t know.*Unpredictability index: 5.
20. Butler*| 23-6*| KenPom: 20 | Last week: 20
If Chris Holtmann’s teams weren’t so consistent over the past three years, this year’s Bulldogs might be on a Florida State level of ¯\_(?)_/¯. They’ve lost to Indiana State, St. John’s and Georgetown; they’ve also beaten Villanova twice and taken down Arizona on a neutral court. With Holtmann still mixing and matching lineups, it’s tough to tell which one of those teams Butler is. Unpredictability index: 8.
Five more to keep an eye (or two) on: Iowa State, Miami, Cincinnati, Wichita State, Dayton
Best of the mids: VCU, St. Mary’s, Illinois State, Rhode Island, Vermont
Previous rankings: Jan. 5 | Jan. 12*| Jan. 19*| Jan. 26*|*Feb. 2*| Feb. 9*| Feb. 16*| Feb. 24